Interview
Why Saudi Arabia and the UAE can't stop the Yemen war | The Economist
Deterioration of Saudi-Emirati Relations
- Historically close ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE (shared resources, monarchy, Islam) have soured due to:
- Personal animosity: MBS (Saudi) seeks regional dominance, while MBZ (UAE) resents being directed by the "younger" Crown Prince.
- Divergent strategic cultures: Saudi foreign policy prioritizes Arab/Muslim world sovereignty; UAE prioritizes global trade hubs, non-state actor engagement, and deals with breakaway entities.
- Historically close ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE (shared resources, monarchy, Islam) have soured due to:
Yemen Conflict Divergence
- Both nations share the goal of reducing Houthi control but employ opposing strategies:
- Saudi Arabia: Supports factions preserving a unified Yemen state.
- UAE: Backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking an independent South Yemen.
- Outcome: Saudi-backed forces eventually forced the UAE to curtail support for separatists, yet the underlying strategic schism remains.
- Both nations share the goal of reducing Houthi control but employ opposing strategies:
Sudan Crisis Dynamics
- Strategic Mismatch:
- UAE prioritized commercial security, backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for protection of port and infrastructure investments.
- Saudi Arabia prioritized state sovereignty, supporting the regular Sudanese Army.
- Commercial vs. Security Interests:
- UAE view: Red Sea access is primarily a commercial investment protection issue.
- Saudi view: Red Sea is a security imperative, especially after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, making the Red Sea vital for Saudi oil exports.
- Conflict Intensification:
- UAE involvement in funding the RSF facilitates gold laundering for Hamidi, fueling the looting-driven war.
- Multiple belligerent actors (Army vs. RSF) increase complexity, making conflict resolution statistically harder and prolonging the humanitarian disaster.
- Strategic Mismatch:
Horn of Africa Food Security Strategy
- Gulf states (including Qatar) have invested heavily in purchasing arable land in the Horn of Africa to secure food imports.
- Specific UAE assets include large tracts of fertile Nile River land in Sudan.
- Criticism of this approach:
- Strategically flawed: Global food supply is sufficient; the core need is secure sea lanes, not land ownership.
- Self-defeating: Land acquisition and foreign meddling have fueled local conflict and famine, jeoparduring the very supply chains the investments were meant to protect.