Interview
Why Saudi Arabia and the UAE can't stop the Yemen war | The Economist
- The rift between Saudi and Emirati leadership is expected to remain opaque due to royal court secrecy, driven primarily by personal animosity where MBS sought control over Gulf foreign policy while MBZ resented taking orders from a younger prince.
- Future diplomatic approaches will diverge as Saudi policy remains rooted in state sovereignty while the UAE pursues deals with non-state actors and breakaway republics outside the region.
- Despite strategic disagreements, both nations anticipate maintaining a shared interest in ensuring the Houthis do not control large parts of Yemen, though a schism regarding Yemeni sovereignty is predicted to persist even after Saudi forces curtail Emirati support for separatists.
- If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the UAE's focus is expected to shift from commercial aims to security concerns, with port and infrastructure investments in the Red Sea driving support for local powers that protect these interests.
- The conflict in Sudan is forecast to continue due to complexity created by multiple actors and increased variables, with the humanitarian disaster attributed to narrow commercial aims and the self-defeating nature of buying arable land in the Horn of Africa.
- Long-term Gulf food security strategies involving the purchase of farmland in the Horn of Africa are predicted to be wrongheaded and likely to cause local famine, as securing sea lanes is argued to be more sensible than occupying food-producing regions.