Interview, Fireside Chat
Why Syria might face another uprising
- Suppressed sectarian tensions over the last 14 years are surfacing among Alawites, potentially fueling an insurgency driven by political and economic disenchantment.
- Officers from the former Assad regime are actively recruiting for a new insurgency and establishing training camps outside the country.
- The new state is becoming heavily centralized under Ahmad Sharif, with decision-making concentrated among half a dozen to ten individuals, creating shadow governments without public oversight.
- Concerns exist regarding a mysterious Office of Political Affairs acting as the embryo of a new authoritarian structure, while the anticipated new parliament may function merely as a rubber-stamp institution.
- A failure to address domestic issues, including ineffective attempts to convince minorities to lay down arms, risks causing the country to fragment, which would negate all international diplomatic successes.
- The economic situation for many Syrians has deteriorated since liberation due to layoffs and subsidy cuts, while promised sanctions relief has not yet produced material reconstruction or ground-level changes.
- Domestic instability is currently manifesting as violence, revenge killings, and sectarian attacks in Homs, the coastal countryside, Hama, and the Aleppo countryside.
- Although the new government is viewed as underwhelmed in pursuing war criminals, with former regime figures enjoying exile or managing sensitive files, fears of an Islamic Caliphate have not materialized.
- Social indicators such as women joining the police and alcohol availability in the old city suggest a departure from previous strictures, even as international sanctions are being lifted faster than anticipated through relations with Donald Trump.