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Why the French are fed up (and what it means for Macron)
- 2017 Political Context: Emmanuel Macron won the 2017 French presidential election at age 39 with a centrist party newly formed one year prior, defeating the prevailing populist wave and promising national unity and sweeping reforms.
- Current Economic Indicators: Under Macron's presidency, France experienced rising incomes, dropping unemployment, and became more entrepreneurial and business-friendly.
- Pandemic Response Outcomes: A government stimulus package during the pandemic facilitated the strongest economic growth since the late 1960s, enabling a rapid recovery to pre-pandemic economic levels.
- Current Polling Data: Despite widespread public discontent and despondency, Macron remains the favorite to win the 2022 election, leading in all major polls.
- Public Sentiment Statistics: A recent survey indicates that three-quarters of French citizens believe the country is currently in decline.
- Support for Populism: More than 50% of voters state they would vote for a populist candidate in the first round of the 2022 election.
- Geographical Political Divide:
- Auxerre, a historical bellwether town that backed the winner for 40 years, is projected to re-elect Macron.
- Voting patterns outside major urban centers in the "Diagonale du Vide" (empty diagonal) and rural areas show a distinct shift toward hard-right candidates, specifically Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.
- The 2017 second-round results in Auxerre favored Macron, while surrounding regions showed increasing support for Le Pen.
- Hard-Right Candidates:
- Marine Le Pen, a former second-round opponent of Macron, remains a major contender.
- Éric Zemmour, a former journalist recently convicted for inciting racial hatred, launched the "Reconquest Party" with a platform promising to slash immigration and taxes.
- Historical Protest Movements:
- The 2018 "Gilets Jaunes" (Yellow Vests) movement originated in provincial towns reliant on cars and against fuel tax hikes, evolving into a broader anti-government rebellion.
- Former movement members continue to stage weekly protests, including the 35th consecutive protest recently held against COVID-19 vaccination mandates.
- Mainstream Party Collapse:
- The established mainstream right (Republicans) and left (Socialists) have failed to recover their pre-2017 standing.
- Macron's victory is described as the culmination of the collapse of these traditional parties, which failed to meet public expectations for radical change.
- Voter Motivation Analysis:
- 30% of voters considering Macron do so by default rather than active choice, as no other candidate convinces them.
- Public frustration is attributed to a perceived disconnect between policies favoring business leaders/shareholders and the reality of provincial industrial decline and lack of high-speed rail access.
- Future Implications:
- A second term for Macron would make him the first French president in 20 years to win re-election.
- Analysts suggest that while winning may be probable, governing with a mandate from a "fed-up" population could complicate the introduction of new reforms if the public mood turns further gloomy.
- Social Grievances: Discontent is driven by the war in Ukraine, post-pandemic cost of living crises, rising fuel prices, and specific policies regarding taxation, immigration, and mandatory vaccination for customer-facing workers.