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Why the French are fed up (and what it means for Macron)
- Emmanuel Macron is currently leading in all polls and is forecast by The Economist as odds-on to win the 2022 French presidential election, which would mark the first re-election of a French president in 20 years.
- Despite leading in polls, more than 50% of voters indicate an intention to vote for a populist candidate in the first round, and the Gilets Jaunes movement continues to hold weekly protests.
- Analysts predict that a potential second term for Macron would place him in a position to introduce new reforms, though questions remain regarding the strength of his mandate due to a disaffected population.
- Predictions suggest the political system will remain highly fragmented and complicated, characterized by an amorphous left and a right faction chasing the far-right.
- Experts anticipate that the collapse of mainstream parties will sustain public demand for radical life changes, while Denis Chatelain expects policies to prioritize business leaders and shareholders over the broader population.
- Significant risks include the possibility of internal collapse, a worsening gloomy mood among the public that could lead to trouble, and the prospect that governing will prove significantly more difficult than winning the election.