Will Rahm Emanuel run for president? | The Economist

2024 Election Strategy for Swing States:

• The candidate asserts that winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, or Georgia requires a message prioritizing "redistribution and growth" over pure growth.
• While acknowledging that "presidential campaigns are as much about the messenger as the message," the candidate notes that a future Democratic nominee will convey the same core message regardless of the specific individual.

Candidacy Status and Messaging:

• The candidate has not yet formally decided whether to run for the presidency.
• Campaign values will center on "candor, authenticity, and strength" to counter perceptions of weakness or "woke" rhetoric.

U.S.-Europe Relations and NATO Policy:

• The candidate believes U.S. trust in Europe has been "severely damaged" by the Trump administration, estimating a "generation" is required to rebuild it.
• Rejecting the idea that trust can be instantly restored via a "reset button" in the Oval Office.
• Proposes moving U.S. military presence west of the Rhine River to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
• This troop realignment aims to provide active deterrence against Russia and signal a partnership rather than a burden on Europe.
• Sets a timeline of "six months" to implement new rules specifically targeting "gray zone attacks."
• Frames the policy as modernizing NATO institutions rather than merely blaming past failures for European defense dependence.

Alliance Philosophy and Past Foreign Policy:

• Describes NATO as "the most successful defensive partnership and alliance in human history."
• Acknowledges that past U.S. leadership encouraged European bad habits regarding defense investment and Russian gas dependence, while Europe simultaneously enabled U.S. over-reliance.
• Condemns the 2003 Iraq War and the current war in the Gulf as "really stupid leadership."
• Differentiates between "smart" leadership, which the American public supports, and "go solo" isolationism or "stupid" ventures like the Iran withdrawal.

American Public Sentiment:

• Notes that U.S. support for Ukraine remained relatively constant throughout the conflict because the public understood the threat posed by Putin.
• Believes the American people will support "smart leadership" that fosters shared burden, provided the strategy avoids previous strategic errors.