Interview
Will Rahm Emanuel run for president? | The Economist
- Candor, authenticity, and strength are predicted to hold high value in the political landscape, with messaging strategies tailored to win swing states; while the speaker may not be the nominee, the core campaign message is expected to remain consistent regardless of the outcome.
- Rebuilding trust between the United States and European allies is projected to likely require a generation, noting that while current damage was caused by one individual, trust cannot be fully destroyed and no immediate reset is possible.
- The United States intends to challenge Europe on security matters not deemed necessary west of the Rhine River and plans to reposition troops to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, and the Czech Republic to signal active deterrence against Russia and a desire for partnership.
- Within six months, new rules regarding gray zone attacks are expected to be implemented, establishing specific red lines for NATO exercises to confront Russian activities in this domain.
- Future US support for joint alliance efforts, including modernization and reform of institutions, remains contingent upon smart leadership, whereas strategies characterized as "stupid" (specifically citing actions in Iran) are expected to result in a lack of American public backing.
- The American public is projected to maintain constant support for Ukraine due to the threat from Putin, continue to value allies standing shoulder to shoulder, but will reject a "go solo" approach and oppose new conflicts such as wars in the Gulf or Iraq deemed to result from poor leadership.
- If Europe chooses not to partner with the United States, this refusal is described as a significant indicator regarding the state of the alliance, while the US maintains a vested interest in European security and believes it can lead alliances if the strategy is executed correctly.