Interview
Will Trump be president again?
- Donald Trump's influence over the Republican Party is intensifying despite his 2020 election loss, poor presidential record, and ongoing legal investigations.
- In August 2022, Trump's most prominent internal critic, Liz Cheney, lost her Republican primary election to a Trump-endorsed candidate in Wyoming, a defeat viewed as validating that opposing Trump leads to electoral failure.
- Multiple factors suggest Trump is likely to seek a second presidential term:
- He derives personal enjoyment from the presidency, crowds, and political conflict.
- Escalating federal legal investigations may incentivize his candidacy by allowing him to frame himself as a victim and run on a platform of grievance.
- He may leverage legal prosecutions to argue they are partisan attempts to prevent his return to the White House.
- The Republican Party is currently split between a hard-core base eager for Trump's return and a broader coalition of officeholders and candidates who wish to move past his "craziness" and cult of personality.
- A new generation of Republican candidates is waiting to lead but faces significant barriers to overcoming Trump's established advantage.
- Midterm elections are critical because many Senate candidates are Trump's personal picks rather than the party's established choices, potentially leading to weak Republican performance in battleground states.
- Even if Trump-endorsed candidates underperform in the midterms, this is unlikely to prevent him from securing the 2024 nomination, as party members have repeatedly aligned with him despite his previous election losses.
- Analysts project Trump would likely lose the national popular vote but remain competitive by securing enough Electoral College votes in key battleground states to win with minority support.
- A significant concern is the erosion of election integrity, with Republican officials selected for vote-counting roles who endorse the "big lie" that Trump won in 2020.
- There is a possibility that in future elections, Trump could leverage allies in key states to falsify results if he achieves strong performance in battlegrounds.