Interview
Will Trump be president again?
- Donald Trump is expected to likely run for president again, potentially leveraging legal investigations as a strategy to present himself as a victim of partisan persecution, thereby mutually reinforcing his legal defense and political campaign.
- While a hard core of the Republican Party urgently desires his candidacy, most Republican officeholders and candidates prefer he does not run, and the party may seek to move past his distractions and cult of personality as a new generation of alternatives awaits.
- Despite the availability of alternative candidates, any non-Trump Republican would face significant difficulty overcoming Trump's initial advantage, with historical precedent such as Liz Cheney's defeat serving as a warning of electoral consequences for opposing him.
- The outlook acknowledges that even if Trump-nominated candidates underperform in a general election, it may not prevent his return to the nomination, though inability to retake the Senate could eventually foster party dissatisfaction.
- In a general election, Trump is predicted to struggle to win a popular vote majority but may still secure victory by obtaining a minority of votes while accumulating sufficient electoral votes in key battleground states.
- Serious risks include scenarios where Trump allies in key positions could falsify results in battleground states, requiring a heightened focus on the potential denigration of vote integrity and result manipulation.
- The strategy suggests that legal proceedings may intensify if investigations increase, allowing Trump to argue forcefully against them, while he continues to break through established political boundaries.