Interview
Winning the long war in Ukraine
- The Ukrainian counter-offensive has achieved limited ground gains without a decisive breakthrough, transitioning the conflict into a protracted war of attrition expected to continue through spring 2024.
- Senior editors note that timelines for a quick victory are being rejected by Ukrainian leadership, who view the conflict as an existential struggle requiring a "new normal" of long-term adjustment.
- There is a growing difficulty in managing Western expectations; the narrative is shifting from measuring rapid progress to supporting a protracted struggle with "lowered expectations."
- Ukraine has expanded its second front by increasing the range and payload of drones striking targets deep within Russian territory.
- Recent strikes have targeted politically sensitive locations in Moscow as well as low-cost strategic assets, such as a Tupolev-22 strategic bomber.
- These deep strikes aim to shatter the Kremlin's narrative of a "special military operation" that leaves the Russian home front unaffected, evidenced by frequent airport closures and diverted flights.
- The strategy aims to provoke domestic questioning among ordinary Russians regarding the war's duration and feasibility.
- Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia have proceeded without triggering feared escalation from Moscow, challenging prior Western hesitancy to provide advanced weaponry.
- This lack of escalation may influence the willingness of allies, particularly the US and Germany, to supply higher-caliber arms previously withheld due to escalation risks.
- These strikes are identified as a critical component of the battle of attrition intended to shape the balance of power by the beginning of 2024.
- Peace negotiations remain futile as both sides currently perceive a potential theory of victory based on endurance and the ability to inflict continued attrition.
- Analysts suggest the war will only conclude when Putin's inner circle determines that the cost in money and lives renders the conflict futile.
- Success in this phase depends less on artillery rates and more on broader societal factors, including economic resilience, social cohesion, and political stability.
- Ukraine faces the specific challenge of mobilizing economic resources and implementing reforms to sustain its population and values over a long war period.