Interview
Winning the long war in Ukraine
- Military operations are expected to transition into a prolonged war of attrition lasting years, with the next major phase of fighting anticipated in the spring.
- The current counter-offensive is not projected to break Russian defensive lines, and peace efforts currently remain futile as both sides believe further battlefield persistence will yield results.
- The war is predicted to end only upon a Ukrainian victory or when the political and societal consensus around Putin shifts to view the conflict as futile and wasteful.
- Ukrainian drone capabilities, including range and payload, are expected to expand, enabling continued low-cost strikes against strategic bombers and deep penetrations into Russian territory.
- Deep strikes inside Russia are anticipated to remain routine without provoking escalation, intended to shift the balance of power by the beginning of 2024 and challenge the narrative of stability for ordinary Russian citizens.
- Reconstituting forces during the winter is a critical requirement for Ukraine to avoid exceptional vulnerability, while both nations must mobilize economic resources, social cohesion, and political reform to succeed in the attrition war.
- Political messaging regarding limited progress alongside sustained support will face significant challenges, potentially leading Ukrainian allies to reframe the conflict narrative and causing domestic irritation in Ukraine regarding specific end-timelines.
- The outcome will depend heavily on societal, economic, and political factors, with the willingness of the international community to supply weapons potentially influenced by Russia's non-escalatory response to Ukrainian deep strikes.