Woke croaks: “peak woke” has passed

Definition of "Peak Woke" and Timing

• Economist analysis indicates the peak of "woke" ideology, characterized by extreme pessimism regarding America's capacity for progress, occurred between 2021 and 2022.
• Data from 2019 to 2022 showed a general increase in "woke" views, followed by a distinct decline across public opinion, media, academia, and the corporate sector.
• Specific timeline variations exist by topic:
  • Views on women peaked slightly earlier than views on race.
  • Belief that sex can differ from birth assignment peaked around 2015 and has declined since.
  • Academic discourse on these topics peaked in 2022, slightly later than media and public opinion.
  • Corporate mentions of "DEI" (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) spiked after George Floyd's death in 2020 (14x higher in Q1 2021) and have since dropped to 2020 levels but remain above pre-2020 baselines.

Media and Language Trends

• Frequency of 150 specific "woke words" (e.g., "microaggression," "intersectionality") in major publications peaked between 2019 and 2021.
• The New York Times usage of "white privilege" dropped significantly from 2.5 instances per million words in 2021 to 0.4 instances per million words in 2023.
• Television coverage and book titles utilizing these terms followed a similar downward trajectory after the 2021 peak.

Demographic Shifts in Public Opinion

• During the peak (2019–2022), white Democrats were more likely than Black Americans to attribute racial differences to discrimination, a finding noted as surprising by data journalists.
• While Gen Z and Millennials currently hold the most "woke" views, they have experienced the steepest decline in these views over the last two years.
• The decline correlates with a broader moderation of views across age groups, though younger cohorts remain more progressive than older generations.

Theoretical Framework: Elite Overproduction

• Musa Al-Ghabi, author of We Have Never Been Woke, argues that "great awakenings" occur during periods of "elite overproduction," where an excess of educated people compete for limited prestige and high-status roles.
• Three historical precedents were identified:
  • 1920s–1930s: Driven by economic depression and the aftermath of WWI; saw early feminist and gay rights movements.
  • Mid-1960s–1970s: Driven by underemployment in the knowledge economy and Vietnam War draft policy changes (ending college exemptions) rather than war sentiment alone.
  • Late 1980s–Early 1990s: Triggered by the savings and loan crisis, recession, and globalization lowering wages for middle-management professionals.

Political Implications and the Democratic Party

• The Democratic Party has significantly pivoted away from "wokeness," with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz adopting a "big tent" approach contrasting with the social justice emphasis of the 2020 primary.
• The party faces challenges regarding the "oppressor-oppressed" narrative, particularly concerning anti-Semitism and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
• Republicans have effectively weaponized "anti-wokeness" as a primary mobilizing tool, linking diverse policy issues (e.g., bridge collapses, education) to woke ideology to drive turnout.
• State-level anti-woke legislation has accelerated, including Florida's "Stop Woke Act" (Stop Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees Act) and bans on specific AP courses.

Legacy and Future Outlook

• Positive outcomes include increased awareness of inequities and the adoption of bias-reducing hiring practices (e.g., blind resume reviews).
• Workplace civility has reportedly improved, with fewer reports of interruptions or unwanted physical contact (e.g., touching hair).
• Negative outcomes include the alienation of voters through group-based antagonism and a culture of fear regarding speech.
• The "culture of victimhood" is now bipartisan, with young men increasingly identifying as victims of gender-based discrimination.
• A potential resurgence of woke ideology is possible if Donald Trump is re-elected, potentially sparking a counter-revolution similar to 2016.
• Long-term trends depend on whether Gen Z moderates its views as it enters middle age and holds positions of power.

Quiz Results

• Merriam-Webster updated the definition of "woke" in 2017.
• The "Stop Woke Act" in Florida stands for "Stop Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees Act."
• Marks & Spencer's 2019 LGBT+ sandwich contained lettuce, guacamole, bacon, and tomato.