Interview, Other
Woke croaks: “peak woke” has passed
The EconomistJohn Prideaux, Charlotte Howard, Idrees Kahloon, Ainslie Johnstone, Sacha Nauta, Musa al-Gharbi, John Priddo, Idris Kalloun, Ainsley Johnston
- The "peak" of "woke" sentiment in American politics is projected to have occurred in 2021-2022, with expectations of a decline in public opinion, media coverage, academia, and corporate sectors from 2022 onwards, while corporate mentions of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) are expected to remain significantly above pre-2020 levels despite staying below the 2021 peak.
- Demographic analysis suggests Gen Z and millennials will experience the steepest drop in "woke" views, though they are forecast to retain higher levels than older generations; however, as Gen Z assumes positions of power, their views are expected to moderate, although some scenarios posit a "real peak" if this shift does not occur.
- Public data on race relations, women's rights, and trans rights is anticipated to show a continued downward trend in "woke" views from 2022, and frequency of "woke" terminology in major publications is expected to remain low following the sharp decline observed between 2021 and 2023.
- The Republican Party is expected to leverage "anti-wokeness" as a key political driver to increase turnout by linking various societal issues to the ideology, while the Democratic Party is projected to shift from "systemic racism" rhetoric toward a "big tent" model to appeal to moderate voters.
- A potential re-election of Donald Trump in the 2024 election is predicted to act as a catalyst that could paradoxically spark a resurgence of the ideas he opposes, mirroring the dynamic following his previous term.
- Political strategy is expected to evolve toward broad, universal policies such as the poverty tax credit to address a perceived "culture of victimhood" across both parties, creating potential space for "common ground" as extreme movement excesses recede.
- Significant risks include the calcification of the ideology within universities and non-profits where market corrections are absent, and the possibility that "illiberal" tactics employed by the right to combat wokeness could result in bans on speech and practices antithetical to free speech in education.