Your money for a run? Campaign finance in America

US Presidential Campaign Finance and Strategy

• Kamala Harris has raised over $1 billion since joining the presidential race on July 21, averaging approximately $530,000 per hour ($10,000 per minute).
  • In August, the first full month of her campaign, she raised $190 million compared to Donald Trump's $45 million.
  • Trump's fundraising is currently supplemented by Elon Musk's $75 million contribution over the past three months.
• Despite the unprecedented volume of funds, political analysts argue that cash advantages do not directly correlate with electoral outcomes due to high name recognition.
  • Both candidates have highly calcified voter opinions, making it difficult for advertising to shift aggregate polling numbers.
  • Research on the 2020 election found that hundreds of millions in TV advertising failed to generate detectable opinion shifts among the public.
  • Current spending debates center on whether a marginal spending difference (e.g., $80 million vs. $100 million) influences the tens of thousands of undecided voters in swing states.
• The 2010 Citizens United decision, which enabled massive corporate giving, has not produced the anticipated long-term Republican financial dominance at the national level.
  • Democratic candidates have historically outspent Republicans in recent presidential elections (Obama in 2012 and 2016; Biden relative to Trump).
  • Corporate interest groups in Silicon Valley have increasingly favored Democratic candidates.
  • Democratic campaigns have successfully leveraged small-dollar donor networks, generating tens of millions from thousands of individual contributors within single days following news events.
• Republican donor sentiment has soured regarding Donald Trump's selection of JD Vance as a running mate, with some business-friendly donors citing Vance's economic populism as a deterrent.
• While television advertising influence is debated, campaigns continue to spend heavily on "get-out-the-vote" operations and field offices to secure razor-thin margins in critical districts.

Dutch Asylum Crisis and Far-Right Governance

• The MS Galaxy, a former cruise ferry, is currently moored in Amsterdam housing 1,500 asylum applicants due to a severe shortage of on-land accommodation.
  • Of the 1,500 residents, 500 have already been approved for asylum but remain on the ship because no legal housing is available.
  • Average processing times for asylum applications have extended to 15 months, with some applicants waiting two years or more.
• The Dutch government, led by a coalition where the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) controls the immigration ministry under Geert Wilders, is pursuing the "toughest asylum policy ever."
  • The administration plans to declare a state of emergency to bypass parliamentary oversight and temporarily halt asylum intake, a move civil servants deem legally untenable.
  • Wilders has threatened to collapse the government if the state of emergency declaration is not approved by parliament.
• Despite a decline in the absolute number of new asylum seekers, the housing crisis is driven by the premature closure of asylum centers following the 2016 migrant wave.
  • The government's strategy aims to damage the Netherlands' reputation to deter smugglers, similar to the tactics used by Denmark.
• Experts warn that the attempted suspension of parliamentary procedure for asylum legislation mirrors authoritarian maneuvers seen in Hungary under Viktor Orbán, potentially eroding the rule of law.
  • There is suspicion that the government seeks to rule by decree rather than passing restrictive laws through standard legislative channels.

Global Skyscraper Trends and Architecture

• London has experienced a significant proliferation of high-rise buildings since the opening of The Shard in 2012, though it lacks the density of "supertall" structures found elsewhere.
  • The Shard stands 309.6 meters tall, slightly exceeding the 300-meter threshold for a "supertall" designation.
• The global skyscraper frenzy is most concentrated in China and the Middle East rather than the United States.
  • Dubai hosts the highest number of skyscrapers globally (31), while China surpasses the US in skyscrapers per capita.
  • China occupies five of the top 10 tallest building slots globally.
• Drivers for supertall construction vary by region:
  • In China, lower-tier cities use supertalls as political tools to advance local officials' standing within the party hierarchy.
  • In the US, recent projects are primarily luxury residential towers in New York, which face controversy regarding inequality and shadowing of public spaces like Central Park.
• European construction of supertalls faces significant cultural and regulatory resistance.
  • France enforces a ban on tall buildings, and Italy restricts heights to preserve landmark visibility.
  • Building supertalls is often viewed as "gauche" in historic European cities due to aesthetic and heritage concerns.
• Engineering constraints, specifically elevator cable technology, currently limit building heights, though future breakthroughs could theoretically allow for structures reaching a mile high.
  • The proposed Jeddah Tower aims to reclaim the title of the world's tallest building once completed.