Zalmay Khalilzad, former Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq

Assessment of Afghanistan Outcomes

• The $2.3 trillion cost and 250,000 fatalities (including civilians and opposition fighters) were primary drivers for the Trump and Biden administrations' decisions to end the war.
• Strategic priorities shifted post-9/11 away from nation-building in Afghanistan toward managing great power competition, specifically the rise of China.
• Khalilzad identifies two specific achievements:
  • Establishment of counter-terrorism deterrence, ensuring the Taliban will not allow groups like Al-Qaeda to plot against the U.S.
  • Transformation of Afghan society, including increased life expectancy, connectivity, and a young, American-exposed generation.
• The broader goal of democratizing Afghanistan and the region failed due to internal Afghan discord, high corruption, and increasingly problematic elections.

Current Taliban Situation and U.S. Policy

• The U.S. lacks a formal embassy and has not determined whether to embrace, isolate, or pressure the Taliban regarding human rights and inclusivity.
• Initial Taliban promises to allow women's education have largely been unmet, though internal debates exist regarding schooling; some factions oppose educating girls beyond elementary levels.
• Khalilzad notes a rigorous internal debate within the Taliban, but the trajectory suggests a "failed state" scenario if inclusivity is not achieved.
• A potential "grand bargain" remains the unfinished business of the 2020 Doha Agreement, but domestic political constraints prevent the current U.S. administration from pursuing recognition or full engagement.
• Monitoring assets remain "over the horizon," but capabilities have degraded due to the withdrawal of on-ground presence.

Ukraine Conflict and Strategic Implications

• The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was not calculated to account for the Russian invasion of Ukraine; no one anticipated the scale of Putin's aggression or NATO's unified response.
• The perception of U.S. weakness following the Afghanistan exit proved to be a miscalculation by Putin, as the conflict has actually strengthened NATO cohesion and expansion.
• Putin is described as a declining power struggling to adjust to the end of the Soviet Union, acting on imperial nostalgia regarding Ukraine.
• Escalation risks in Ukraine include:
  • Conventional attacks on NATO members to deter support.
  • Tactical nuclear strikes, likely against unpopulated military targets within Ukraine rather than a direct strike on the U.S. or NATO soil.
• Expert estimates for nuclear escalation probability range between 2.5% and 15%; while low-probability, the event carries high risk and cannot be dismissed.

Sanctions and Economic Leverage

• Sanctions failed to deter the initial invasion of Ukraine, as Putin did not believe they would be enforced to the stated severity.
• Sanctions are effective in weakening Russia's economy, causing brain drain and loss of weapon sales market share, but unlikely to dissuade actions Putin deems vital to national survival.
• Potential future sanctions could target secondary buyers in India and China regarding oil and gas, though their immediate deterrent value is unproven for vital Russian interests.

China Strategic Challenge

• The U.S. misjudged the trajectory of China, believing economic prosperity would lead to democratization, a theory Khalilzad confirms has failed.
• The U.S. shifted focus to the Middle East post-9/11, allowing China to grow as a comprehensive challenger in technology, territory, and infrastructure (e.g., One Belt One Road, Djibouti base).
• China's threat is described as "comprehensive," encompassing:
  • Territorial claims in the South China Sea.
  • Technological dominance in 5G, hypersonics, and semiconductors (specifically Taiwan).
  • Control of critical minerals and green energy markets in Africa.
• The U.S. must manage the "principle contradiction" of U.S.-China competition while maintaining the burden of Ukraine defense primarily on European partners.
• Khalilzad warns that economic interdependence may distort U.S. ability to perceive the full severity of the Chinese threat.

Taiwan Contingency

• China is determined to acquire Taiwan, making it a vital concern for the U.S.
• Current U.S. military capability to defend Taiwan depends heavily on how a conflict initiates and evolves, with high unpredictability regarding missile capabilities and U.S. involvement thresholds.
• Taiwan's semiconductor production is identified as a critical national security asset; losing control of Taiwan would severely impact U.S. technological standing.