Fireside Chat, Interview
Zalmay Khalilzad, former Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq
- Deterrence is expected to prevent the Taliban from allowing Al-Qaeda or similar groups to plot against the US from Afghanistan, while a significant portion of the American-influenced young generation is predicted to remain in the country under current Taliban rule.
- The US does not currently plan to recognize the Taliban, maintain a military presence, or formally embrace the regime, though a "grand bargain" to finalize the Doha Agreement remains a considered option despite political difficulties.
- If the Taliban fails to establish inclusivity and maintain power for themselves, the resulting state failure could see independent groups emerge, potentially allowing terrorist organizations to establish bases that threaten the West.
- The withdrawal from Afghanistan was driven by the Ukraine war and great power competition, with the assessment that Russia likely miscalculated US resolve, leading instead to NATO unity and potential expansion rather than alliance division.
- Russia is viewed as a declining power struggling with the loss of imperial status, and while sanctions are unlikely to deter actions considered vital by Moscow, they may cause market share losses in international weapon sales and further economic decline due to poor weapon performance and war costs.
- Escalation risks in Ukraine include conventional attacks on NATO members, affecting European support calculations, with nuclear scenarios potentially involving stages of initial escalation, tactical use against unpopulated military targets in Ukraine, and an estimated probability of nuclear escalation ranging from 2.5% to 15%.
- Grave uncertainties regarding the Ukraine conflict are expected to persist for weeks, months, and possibly years, with concerns that a protracted war could divert US attention and resources from the primary strategic challenge posed by China.
- China is identified as the emerging challenger aiming to displace the US as the preeminent power, with the US-China rivalry defined as the "principle contradiction" affecting all global issues.
- China's comprehensive challenge spans territorial disputes, basing access at locations like Djibouti and South China Sea islands, and competition in technology (5G, hypersonics, chips), minerals, and green energy sectors in Africa.
- The US is projected to need new private sector partnerships to address the scale of the China challenge, which is distinguished from the Soviet threat by significant US economic interests in China.
- Taiwan is a vital concern due to its chip capability, with China determined to acquire it and possessing numerous missiles to keep the US at bay, creating uncertainty regarding the US willingness to intervene militarily.
- To mitigate the risk of US distraction from the China challenge, there is an expectation that the US must ensure European nations bear the primary burden in the Ukraine conflict.
- An agreement with Iran is projected to increase oil and gas supplies, including through Turkey to Europe, which would help address energy prices.
- The US may gain increased share of the international weapons market if Russia struggles to fulfill signed contracts, while the US economy and global position face the dual pressures of managing the Ukraine conflict and countering Chinese expansion.