Latest Interviews

Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research

Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan

Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.