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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
What the Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Means for Economic Growth and Markets
David Mericle, Brian Friedman, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike forecast to seven increases driven by wage growth incompatible with inflation targets, projecting balance sheet reductions to begin in June. While financial conditions remain tighter with record credit outflows and equity exposure hitting yearly lows, the firm attributes greater recessionary risk to the fading of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus than to monetary policy. Consequently, the research recommends a long-equity, short-credit strategy and identifies emerging market currencies as attractive assets amid a global divergence where developing central banks have largely finished tightening.