Jari Stehn
Showing 1–7 of 7 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Is the UK economy finally turning the corner?
Jari Stehn, Charlotte Keenan, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 0.6% UK GDP growth for the year, driven by falling headline inflation and a likely Bank of England rate cut in June that diverges from US Federal Reserve timing. Despite this recovery trajectory, the economy faces structural headwinds including a 5% output gap from Brexit, tight labor supply caused by shifting immigration patterns, and significant financing hurdles for the 99% of private enterprises that are small businesses. While political consensus on fiscal consolidation remains strong across both major parties, persistent wage growth and educational mismatches continue to constrain productivity and investment within the SME sector.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Why the U.K.’s high inflation has global implications
Jari Stehn, George Cole, Alison Nathan, Yari Shteyn
Amidst a unique confluence of labor shortages and energy shocks, UK headline inflation remains at 8% as the Bank of England prepares for a series of rate hikes to a terminal level of 5.75%. Goldman Sachs forecasts a slower disinflation path that will likely trigger a fiscal drag on GDP and heighten the risk of recession to 40%, while mortgage costs surge and household consumption stagnates. Despite these headwinds, improving terms of trade and a more aggressive monetary stance relative to global peers are projected to drive the pound higher against the dollar and euro over the coming year.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Europe’s Energy Crisis: End in sight or far from over?
Samantha Dart, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Europe is navigating the current energy crisis with a heightened risk outlook driven by mild weather and robust gas storage, yet structural supply gaps and delayed LNG projects will necessitate recurring demand management through 2024. While geopolitical sanctions and price caps aim to redistribute Russian oil flows, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude reaching $115 per barrel alongside a projected Eurozone recession starting in late 2022 due to persistent inflation. Ultimately, the region faces a volatile trajectory where industrial activity is already contracting and government interventions risk creating future fiscal cliffs if weather patterns turn colder or China's demand rebounds.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Europe at a Crossroads
Allison Nathan, Jari Stehn, Otmar Issing, Romano Prodi, Timothy Garton Ash
Over the last 18 months, the European Union has executed a historic fiscal shift by suspending stability rules and issuing €800 billion in common debt through the Next Generation EU fund to transfer resources from stronger to weaker member states. While this expansionary strategy, supported by the European Central Bank and a new German coalition, introduces a "stick and carrot" reform mechanism, it faces significant hurdles including potential moral hazard, legal challenges to the Maastricht Treaty, and the resilience of nationalist forces. The long-term sustainability of this integration depends on whether the bloc can manage temporary measures, navigate political risks like a potential French populist return, and adapt outdated fiscal criteria to current economic conditions before the recovery fund winds down.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
The European Recovery: Here to Stay?
Allison Nathan, Jari Stehn, Richard Privorotsky, Yari Shteyn, Rich Pivorotsky
Driven by rapid vaccination rates and a significant fiscal stimulus package, the Euro Area and UK are projected to see GDP growth rates of 5.4% and 8.1% respectively in 2021, outpacing global consensus. While the ECB maintains an accommodative monetary stance with no rate hikes anticipated until 2025, European equity markets have rallied with cyclical sectors leading a shift in investor flows away from defensive positions. Despite persistent political risks in Italy, France, and Germany, the outlook remains positive as temporary inflationary pressures are expected to subside by late 2021, allowing structural reforms to drive medium-term expansion.
- Goldman Sachs7 min
What Europe’s Reopening Means for Economic Growth
Goldman Sachs forecasts a robust 2021 European economic rebound driven by vaccine rollouts, projecting 7.1% GDP growth for the UK and 5.1% for the Euro Area despite near-term infection risks. The recovery will feature significant divergence, with Germany returning to pre-pandemic activity levels by the third quarter ahead of Italy and Spain due to its exposure to the global industrial cycle and stronger fiscal support. This optimistic outlook is further bolstered by massive excess household savings estimated at 30% of GDP in the UK and 15% in the Euro Area, which could accelerate consumption if restrictions ease as anticipated.