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Jari Stehn

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  1. Goldman Sachs23 min

    Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives

    David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.

  2. Goldman Sachs22 min

    Is the UK economy finally turning the corner?

    Jari Stehn, Charlotte Keenan, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs projects a 0.6% UK GDP growth for the year, driven by falling headline inflation and a likely Bank of England rate cut in June that diverges from US Federal Reserve timing. Despite this recovery trajectory, the economy faces structural headwinds including a 5% output gap from Brexit, tight labor supply caused by shifting immigration patterns, and significant financing hurdles for the 99% of private enterprises that are small businesses. While political consensus on fiscal consolidation remains strong across both major parties, persistent wage growth and educational mismatches continue to constrain productivity and investment within the SME sector.