Latest Interviews
Showing 151–165 of 1,195 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts observe that risky assets recently reversed gains following an Iran conflict-driven oil spike, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to an inflation shock that has strengthened the US dollar through favorable terms of trade. While traditional hedges have underperformed, the firm maintains a positive outlook for emerging market equities, projecting 10–12% upside driven by robust earnings and structural trends like the AI semiconductor supply chain rather than multiple expansion. This bullish stance assumes the energy crisis remains short-duration; however, a prolonged conflict threatening physical supply shortages could force a re-evaluation of growth estimates and trigger significant market damage.
- The Economist8 min
Why are Iranian drones so deadly? | The Economist
Russia has adapted Iranian Shaheed drones into low-cost Geran munitions, creating a strategic challenge by outpacing traditional missile interceptors with volume and maneuverability. To counter this, Ukraine is exporting its operational expertise in FPV interceptor drones to Gulf states, offering technology transfers in exchange for defense investments and pressure on Western partners to supply high-end interceptors. This emerging alliance leverages Ukrainian successes in air and maritime defense to offset the economic imbalance of Russia's drone swarm tactics while reshaping regional security dynamics.
- The Economist8 min
Is Russia the real winner from the war in Iran? | The Economist
Zanny Minton Beddoes, Shashank, Greg, Ed
A strategic assessment highlights Russia's improved economic resilience and reduced incentive for negotiations, while Gulf states face a binary choice between dealing with Iran or deepening US security ties at the cost of regional stability. The conflict simultaneously exposes critical US industrial limitations in interceptor stockpiles despite demonstrating superior technical execution, a dynamic that China interprets as evidence of American war fatigue. Consequently, these developments entrench Russia's position and accelerate Beijing's military modernization efforts focused on endurance and missile capabilities.
- The Economist7 min
What stocks should you buy during an oil shock? | The Economist
The ongoing war in Iran has disrupted global oil supplies, causing high-quality assets within the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index to underperform as rising energy costs strain long-term valuation models while boosting near-term earnings for low-quality energy stocks. This inversion of traditional flight-to-quality dynamics stems from the fact that speculative, high-multiple valuations are highly sensitive to geopolitical uncertainty, whereas lower-multiple firms possess a valuation buffer that supports performance during volatility. Analysts warn that while market trends currently favor low-quality stocks due to fear, a rapid reversal of this pattern is only anticipated if the Strait of Hormuz opens to restore free oil flow.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Markets are navigating extreme volatility driven by unresolved geopolitical conflicts, evidenced by a VIX spike to 30, oil approaching $100 per barrel, and S&P 500 futures depth collapsing to $3.8 million from historical averages. Institutional investors are executing heavy macro hedges and shorting broad products while rotating capital into U.S. equities as a safe haven, despite record trading volumes and degraded liquidity quality. The near-term market trajectory hinges on consecutive negative jobs data potentially destabilizing retail sentiment, though a return to geopolitical clarity is expected to trigger a rapid unwinding of macro shorts and a rotation back into Asian and European assets.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Can Software Survive AI?
Gabriela Borges, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs and industry analysts report a market sentiment shift in the software sector, where investor concerns over AI-driven existential risks have triggered significant sell-offs by challenging the defensibility of incumbent technology moats. In response, major players like Salesforce and Microsoft are executing strategic replatforming, targeted M&A, and granular monetization tactics to validate that their integrated AI solutions outperform third-party alternatives. Despite slowed revenue growth rates, the sector is showing signs of stabilization as companies demonstrate improved free cash flow margins and attract value-oriented investors seeking GAAP profitability over unchecked stock-based compensation.
- The Economist9 min
Should you pay off your student loan? | The Economist
The current student debt system in England and Wales operates as a regressive loan mechanism where graduates repay 9% of earnings above a frozen threshold until the balance is cleared or 30 years elapse, a structure critics argue penalizes lower earners through extended duration rather than total cost. Historical fee hikes from £1,000 in 1998 to £9,000 in 2012, combined with eroding wage premiums and high interest rates, have left most graduates paying a significant portion of their income into their fifties without the possibility of early loan forgiveness. With government fiscal constraints limiting options to either maintaining current repayment terms or implementing a blanket tax increase to write off debt, the debate centers on whether this evolving financial burden constitutes a fair contribution or a punitive tax on a generation of graduates.
- The Economist8 min
Are Gulf states running out of missile interceptors? | The Economist
Amidst sustained Iranian ballistic missile barrages, Gulf nations and Israel are depleting their layered air defense stocks, including Patriot and Arrow systems, at unsustainable rates that could exhaust reserves within two weeks. This rapid attrition forces regional militaries to ration interceptors, raising the risk of breached defenses, increased casualties, and the targeting of high-value assets like the US consulate in Dubai. Consequently, the conflict is straining global US production capacity, threatening to divert critical munitions from other theaters while exposing long-term vulnerabilities in allied preparedness against high-intensity missile warfare.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
New Worries
Josh Schiffrin, Chris Hussey, Josh Shiprin
Goldman Sachs Chief Strategy Officer Josh Shiprin highlighted that geopolitical instability and surging oil prices have overshadowed recent payrolls data, creating a complex stagflationary environment that complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook. While maintaining confidence in an impending rate cut, Shiprin warned that the duration of the conflict could alter the timing of reductions and urged investors to adopt a long-term strategy focused on a steepening U.S. 2s10s yield curve amidst heightened market uncertainty.
- The Economist7 min
Anthropic’s CEO explains why he took on the Pentagon
Zanny Minton Beddoes, Dario Amodei
A technology executive highlights a strategic conflict with the Pentagon over negotiating a new, broader AI contract that includes restrictions on fully autonomous weapon deployment due to current safety limitations and the risk of a normative oversight vacuum. While the speaker asserts 99% alignment with government goals on non-autonomous capabilities, the dispute centers on the Pentagon's rejection of operational constraints, which the executive warns could force the effective nationalization of private AI firms. This tension is framed as a long-term challenge where both private companies and state actors possess unprecedented power that requires balanced oversight to prevent abuse or overreach.
- Milken Institute20 min
American Dream Investing: Conversation with HUD Secretary Scott Turner | Future of Finance 2026
The Department of Housing and Urban Development has proposed a rule change mandating work requirements for able-bodied public housing recipients, aiming to assist 79,000 families in achieving self-sufficiency while generating a projected $501 million income increase. Under Secretary Benson's leadership, the agency is simultaneously streamlining regulations by removing federal zoning overreach to empower local jurisdictions and revitalizing the Opportunity Zones program, which has already facilitated $100 billion in private investment and lifted 1 million people from poverty. These initiatives reflect a strategic shift toward leveraging private sector innovation and emphasizing personal responsibility to address root causes of homelessness and expand housing affordability.
- Goldman Sachs13 min
$120 Oil Ahead?
Goldman Sachs' Jerome Dortmans warns that the Iran conflict has disrupted 20% of global oil and LNG output, creating unhedgeable supply shortages that could deplete strategic reserves within days. He forecasts prices will surge toward $100–$120 per barrel if the disruption persists beyond three days, with diesel and jet fuel facing the most severe immediate constraints. Dortmans cautions that market complacency is dangerous, predicting material inflationary impacts that will primarily affect major importers like China and India as geopolitical priorities shift away from Western refining systems.
- The Economist8 min
Will the Iran war spread across the Middle East?
Greg, Anshul, Adam, Pete Hexeth
Experts warn that regional chaos in Iran could trigger a prolonged conflict, spiking energy prices and threatening the security models of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. While historically neutral, these nations are shifting toward military alignment with the US and abandoning diplomatic restraint as Iranian strikes backfire by uniting regional populations against Tehran. This escalation occurs amidst a US strategy driven by legacy considerations rather than broad public support, aiming to transform Iran's political landscape while balancing fears of a quagmire against the need to signal power to global rivals like China.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Oil Market Impacts from Iran
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroivind
A U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and causing Brent crude prices to surge 25% year-to-date. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a base case of no sustained supply interruptions with prices stabilizing by late 2026, the market currently prices in a risk premium for a potential one-month closure that could drive costs to triple digits. As global spare capacity remains trapped by the blockade and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain low, the situation presents immediate inflationary risks and elevated geopolitical tail risks for Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure.
- The Economist10 min
Will the Iranian regime collapse? | The Economist
US and Israeli forces are executing a decapitation strategy against the Islamic Republic of Iran's security apparatus, targeting senior figures like General Vahidi while neutralizing half of Tehran's ballistic missile capabilities. Despite inflicting significant damage on command structures and nuclear research sites, the conflict faces logistical risks as regional air defenses may deplete after a week of intense retaliation and accidental strikes have already resulted in American casualties. Ultimately, the war's trajectory hinges on whether the regime collapses under pressure or if political constraints force a reversal of the stated goal of regime change.