Latest Interviews

Why are Gen-Z socialists obsessed with taxing billionaires? | The Economist

Generational shifts are driving a move from traditional progressive taxation toward novel levies on immovable wealth, exemplified by New York's new pied-à-terre tax on non-resident luxury properties. While economists debate whether targeting static assets like real estate avoids the innovation-killing pitfalls of direct billionaire wealth taxes, the discourse is increasingly expanding to include inheritance reform and one-off proposals in states like California. As AI-driven IPOs generate new ultra-high-net-worth individuals, this debate is poised to redefine fiscal policy beyond the narrow "billionaire" label in both the US and UK.

Why Rates Could Keep Rising

Phillip Lee, Chris Hussey, Phil Lee

Rising real yields are driven by a convergence of inflation uncertainty, resilient growth, and elevated fiscal deficits, causing market expectations to shift from anticipated rate cuts to a prolonged pause or potential hikes. The Federal Reserve's upcoming June guidance from its new Chairman underscores this uncertainty, while higher mortgage rates are stifling the housing market and eroding consumer spending power. Institutional investors are consequently adopting a bear-steepener strategy, maintaining dynamic patience in fixed income portfolios to navigate the divergence between robust equity performance and weakening underlying consumption.

Ceasefire, rates and the US consumer

Ralf Preusser, Bruno Braizinha, Sophia Salim, David Tinsley, Sfia Salim, Bruno Brasenia

Driven by persistent energy supply shocks and uncertain inflation baselines, market analysts project a limited number of European Central Bank rate hikes, with 10-year yields forecast to decline toward 2.9% before falling further to 2.7% by 2027 as growth risks persist. Concurrently, the volatility landscape reflects a regional divergence where European markets lag US levels due to rich pricing, while Asian markets like China demonstrate unique immunity to geopolitical tensions. In the US, consumer spending remains robust at a 3.2% annualized rate fueled by tax refunds and wage growth, creating a K-shaped recovery where higher-income groups drive discretionary gains despite rising gasoline costs.

Conflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash

Jean Ann, TJ Thornton

U.S. energy producers are prioritizing capital discipline and shareholder returns over expansion, while a B of A outlook projects long-term oil prices stabilizing between $70 and $71 supported by strategic reserve restocking and potential Iranian production increases. Disruptions to Qatar's LNG capacity and delays in new projects are shifting global supply toward equilibrium, driving a 50% EBITDA surge for U.S. LNG exporters by next year. Simultaneously, rising electricity demand from data centers and AI is accelerating natural gas pipeline construction, creating a divergence where midstream firms anticipate low double-digit earnings growth despite a neutral third-person tone ensuring objective delivery of these market shifts.

Is Defense the Next Trillion-Dollar Category? | a16z American Dynamism Summit

Erin Price-Wright, Michael Duffey, Dino Mavrookas

Saronix is reshaping maritime defense by pivoting to software-driven autonomy that slashes labor requirements from millions to mere fractions while deploying an "IKEA" manufacturing model at its new Louisiana Port Alpha facility. This industrial strategy integrates commercial vessel production to ensure economic sustainability and rapid scaling, directly addressing Pentagon constraints on manufacturing capacity through private capital investment and streamlined acquisition policies. By fostering a robust public-private partnership, the initiative aims to establish a century-long national industrial base capable of supporting both defense needs and global energy dominance.

How Founders Can Build for Law Enforcement and First Responders | The a16z Show

David Ulevitch, Col. Jeffrey Glover, Rahul Sidhu, Colonel Glover

Law enforcement agencies are rapidly transitioning from traditional physical confrontation to AI-driven investigative frameworks that utilize autonomous drones, sensor fusion, and behavioral analytics to prevent crime and optimize resource allocation. This shift is evident in successful interventions where technology de-escalated potential threats and in the adoption of data-driven well-being programs that have reversed historical union resistance to body-worn cameras. Looking ahead, international intelligence sharing and advanced fraud detection are becoming central to a new policing model that prioritizes technical analysis over brute force, requiring developers to deeply understand operational contexts to effectively deploy these inevitable advancements.

How to Trade Oil Now

Jerome Dortmans, Chris Hussey

Oil markets are currently navigating a binary valuation dependent on a potential memorandum signing, which determines whether prices stabilize near $95–$105 or re-price higher following a 30-day sell-off window. While the April ceasefire has removed the immediate risk premium on infrastructure, refined product shortages and yield shifts are expected to constrain European jet fuel supplies and sustain elevated summer prices for at least three to six months. Investor sentiment has subsequently pivoted from directional trading to downside hedging, anticipating that full supply normalization and a bearish market scenario will not materialize until nine months post-conflict.

Will AI Make Markets Less Efficient?

Osman Ali, Alison Nathan, George Lee

Goldman Sachs' Global Co-Head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, Osman Ali, discusses how his team leverages AI and machine learning to analyze market sentiment across 15,000 stocks daily, capturing the fact that over half of recent equity returns are now driven by themes rather than fundamentals. Ali explains that while advanced language models enhance market efficiency, their widespread adoption creates new alpha opportunities through crowding effects and predictable herd behavior, which the firm actively models to exploit. This strategy relies on a hybrid approach combining proprietary data, custom technology, and human experience to navigate a zero-sum game where increasing market complexity continuously generates fresh sources of value.

Do plants feel pain? | The Economist

Michael Pollan, Alok Jha

Biologists Michael Levin and other experts presented evidence that non-neural mechanisms like bioelectric fields enable information processing in organisms without centralized brains, as demonstrated by planaria worm regeneration and conditioned *Mimosa pudica* responses. The event detailed documented plant capabilities including visual mimicry, auditory toxin release, and the distinction between environmental sentience and human-style consciousness. While debate persists regarding whether immobile flora can perceive pain, the consensus among interviewed scientists suggests that plant intelligence is fundamentally an adaptive problem-solving tool rather than a basis for moral objection to consumption.

Are AI models running out of power? | The Economist

Shailesh Chitnis, Rosie Blau

Facing severe hardware shortages and monopoly choke points where Nvidia and TSMC dominate supply, major AI developers like OpenAI and Anthropic are throttling services and redirecting resources to manage capacity. In response to these constraints, five cloud providers plan a $700 billion infrastructure build-out while companies grapple with three-to-five-year lead times for essential components and aging chip inventories. This fundamental mismatch between rapid software cycles and slow physical production is projected to reverse declining inference costs, potentially raising prices and slowing overall industry adoption.

A Conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva | Global Conference 2025

Kristalina Georgieva, Gerard Baker

Following an IMF downgrade of the global growth forecast to 2.8%, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addresses diverging inflation trajectories and rising fiscal constraints while urging China to undertake structural reforms to shift toward domestic consumption and reduced state intervention. Amidst a volatile trade landscape marked by the erosion of fair trade mechanisms and a transition to new economic equilibriums, policymakers are prioritizing bilateral agreements and supply-side productivity enhancements to stabilize financial markets and foster sustainable expansion. This strategic pivot seeks to navigate "off the charts" uncertainty by balancing emerging market resilience against the severe deflationary pressures in China and the debt challenges facing advanced economies.

Winning the Right to Invest: 20VC’s Harry Stebbings

Harry Stebbings, Bobby Molavi

Harry Cassell reframes media distribution as a critical weapon for securing investment rights, leveraging a data-driven content strategy that generated $6.1 million in 36 hours to differentiate his platform from traditional venture capital models. Critiquing the current market's saturation by large multi-stage funds, he emphasizes founder empathy, specific personality traits, and a robust LP network to navigate an environment where capital is commoditized and growth expectations have shifted. Looking toward Europe, Cassell predicts a decade of massive company creation driven by lower barriers to entry and increased founder resilience, citing early successes like Lovable as evidence of a reinvigorated ecosystem ready to compete globally.

How To Build A Company With AI From The Ground Up

Diana Hu

This presentation argues that AI must function as a company's central operating system rather than a peripheral tool, driving a shift toward closed-loop systems that render the entire organization queryable for automated decision-making. In this model, traditional middle-management hierarchies are eliminated and replaced by AI agents that execute engineering tasks and manage workflows, allowing human leaders to focus on strategy as founders, builders, or directly responsible individuals. By leveraging these "AI software factories," startups gain a decisive advantage over incumbents to achieve tenfold velocity increases and operate with human headcount replaced by optimized token usage.

Big Opportunities in Small Cap Equities

Greg Tuorto, Chris Hussey

Following a period of underperformance, small and mid-cap stocks present a valuation opportunity driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, a robust earnings cycle, and surging M&A activity. Investment strategies focus on high-potential sectors including biotechnology, semiconductor capital equipment, and defense innovation while cautiously monitoring domestic manufacturing and onshoring trends. Analysts expect strong January performance to catalyze investor inflows, though the outlook remains tempered by the need for sustained software stability and gradual credit market normalization.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble | The Economist

Donald Trump, Shashank Joshi, Rosie Blau

U.S. Central Command is implementing an economic blockade targeting all vessels transiting Iranian coastal waters to cripple Tehran's revenue and force negotiations on its nuclear program. This strategy risks triggering a global energy crisis with Brent crude projected to hit $150 per barrel if Iran retaliates by restricting neutral shipping in the Gulf of Oman. Analysts warn that the move may alienate key allies and ultimately fail, as Tehran appears prepared to outlast the U.S. administration amid approaching midterm elections.