Latest Interviews
Showing 1–6 of 6 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs18 min
How AI is Affecting GDP Growth, Productivity, and Jobs
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Jan Hatzius
Goldman Sachs estimates that while AI currently contributes a modest 0.1 percentage points to U.S. GDP, it is driving $600 billion in domestic capital expenditure with projections reaching up to $7 trillion cumulatively by 2030. Over the next decade, these investments are expected to raise productivity levels by approximately 15% and push long-term growth forecasts into the mid-2% range, despite immediate headwinds from import deductions and capital reallocation. Although roughly 25% of work tasks are exposed to AI technology, analysis suggests only 6% to 7% will result in direct job elimination, leading to a gradual transition that may raise the unemployment rate by up to 1 percentage point over ten years without triggering a sudden labor shock.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
How Policymakers are Navigating Stagflation Risk
Eric Rosengren, Philipp Hildebrand, Jan Hatzius, Alison Nathan
Economists Eric Rosengren and Philip Hildebrand warn that the U.S. and Euro Area face heightened stagflation risks driven by multi-decade inflation levels and supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Federal Reserve is criticized for being behind the curve in raising rates, strategies involving balance sheet recalibration are debated to avoid a policy-induced recession predicted by Goldman Sachs analysts. Policymakers remain compelled to continue tightening to anchor inflation expectations, even as forecasts suggest a shallow normalization cycle and a growth slowdown to approximately 2%.
- Goldman Sachs7 min
Face Masks and GDP
Goldman Sachs Research proposes a national face mask mandate as an economic alternative to lockdowns, projecting that increasing U.S. compliance from 70% to 85% could lower daily infection growth rates from 1.6% to 0.6%. The report argues this strategy would avoid the estimated 5% GDP reduction associated with equivalent restrictions on economic activity, citing data from East Asia and Southern Europe where mandates successfully slowed viral spread. While the analysis acknowledges potential measurement errors, it concludes that federal or decentralized mandates offer a statistically viable path to mitigate the Sunbelt's accelerating crisis.
- Goldman Sachs9 min
Thinking About an Economic Restart
Following aggressive US monetary and fiscal interventions, investor sentiment has shifted positive despite plunging global growth estimates, driven by expanded Federal Reserve asset purchases and the CARES Act. A strategic debate continues between rapid economic reopening and cautious public health measures, with experts noting historical evidence that prioritizing safety yields better long-term economic outcomes. Recovery trajectories will now depend on monitoring immediate jobless claims and viral progression, while highlighting significant disparities in stimulus adequacy between the US and Europe where sovereign risks persist.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
"Catch-Up With David": with Chief Economist Jan Hatzius
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius projects a global economic slowdown to approximately 3.5% through 2020 driven by US full employment and Federal Reserve rate hikes, though he maintains that recession risk remains low under this gentle deceleration trajectory. Drawing on 2018 forecasting errors regarding emerging markets and the historical lesson of the Berlin Wall's sudden fall, Hatzius advocates for a professional philosophy that balances rigorous modeling with the artistic judgment required to challenge conventional consensus. He concludes that effective forecasting fundamentally depends on acknowledging the inherent limits of predictive knowledge, a principle he applies by abstaining from speculating on unpredictable events ranging from geopolitical shifts to major sporting outcomes.