Eric Rosengren

How Policymakers are Navigating Stagflation Risk

Eric Rosengren, Philipp Hildebrand, Jan Hatzius, Alison Nathan

Economists Eric Rosengren and Philip Hildebrand warn that the U.S. and Euro Area face heightened stagflation risks driven by multi-decade inflation levels and supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Federal Reserve is criticized for being behind the curve in raising rates, strategies involving balance sheet recalibration are debated to avoid a policy-induced recession predicted by Goldman Sachs analysts. Policymakers remain compelled to continue tightening to anchor inflation expectations, even as forecasts suggest a shallow normalization cycle and a growth slowdown to approximately 2%.