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Why knowing the future doesn't always help predict markets | The Economist

Joshua Roberts, Rosie Blau

Elm Wealth's study compared the performance of laypeople, artificial intelligence models, and professional macro traders by simulating 15 days of trading with perfect future news on historical market data. While professionals doubled their starting capital by dynamically adjusting leverage based on confidence, average human and AI participants barely broke even or lost their entire stake due to poor bet sizing. The findings highlight that successful investing relies more on capital allocation and risk management than on superior directional prediction accuracy.

Has the AI boom entered a manic new phase? | The Economist

Henry Curr, Mike Bird, Josh Roberts

US equity markets have reached near-record capitalization levels driven primarily by massive AI-focused "giga IPOs" like SpaceX and anticipated offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI. This concentration, now comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, coincides with unusual retail participation and inverted options pricing that signal a shift toward speculative mania. Simultaneously, major technology firms have redirected capital expenditure toward infrastructure, causing a collapse in free cash flow and transforming the sector into a dominant force in global corporate debt markets.

Peptides are not a miracle drug | The Economist

Natasha Loder, Tim Cross, Jason Palmer

Driven by high-profile endorsements and internet culture, the unregulated global market for peptides bypasses clinical trials to offer performance-enhancing substances riddled with purity risks and unknown long-term health effects. Regulatory bodies in the United States and United Kingdom are attempting to address this crisis through compounding pharmacy oversight and vendor crackdowns, yet enforcement struggles against the speed of online sales and social media promotion. Experts warn that without rigorous scientific validation, the current environment prioritizes profit and self-experimentation over the biological safety required to distinguish beneficial compounds from dangerous contaminants.

Why Israel is closely watching the Iran protests

Anshel Pfeffer, Jason Palmer, Eva

Following a twelve-day war in June, intensified protests and economic instability in Iran threaten to shatter the regime's hold on power while prompting leadership concerns over potential external retaliation to divert attention. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is maintaining a low-profile strategy of strategic patience, allowing internal Iranian dynamics to unfold rather than launching immediate military strikes. This approach aims to facilitate long-term geopolitical shifts, including the eventual erosion of Iran's proxy network and the potential for a future strategic alliance that could end decades of hostility.

Canuck of the draw: Canada’s election campaigns

Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Rob Russo, Aaron Connelly, Alexandra Sewich-Bass

Following Justin Trudeau's resignation, Mark Carney led the Liberal Party to victory in the April 28th snap election by pivoting to economic pragmatism while leveraging a two-horse race against Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives that focused on managing the geopolitical threat of Donald Trump. Simultaneously, China maintained a hardline diplomatic stance in the South China Sea, utilizing strategic pressure on regional partners like India and Australia while avoiding conciliatory negotiations due to President Xi Jinping's centralized control over foreign policy. These political shifts occurred alongside a surge in dystopian fiction sales and cultural analysis, as works like Leila Lalami's *The Dream Hotel* reflected society's increasing acceptance of mass surveillance and risk-based governance in response to domestic instability.

Why nations that fail women fail

Analysis of global data establishes a direct correlation between patriarchal customs like bride pricing and polygyny and heightened state fragility, as these practices fuel male kinship rivalries and create demographic imbalances that recruit disenfranchised men into armed groups. Despite this evidence, female negotiators currently comprise only 16% of UN-led peace talks, a critical deficit that undermines stability since history shows female-led movements result in lasting peace agreements 35% more often than male-dominated efforts. Policymakers are therefore urged to prioritize women's property rights, enforce minimum marriage ages of 18, and integrate female interests into development aid to transform societal instability into resilient governance.

Legally bombed: Trump cases dropped

Trump, Rosie Bloor, Adam O'Neill, Dina Musa, Andrew Palmer

Special Counsel Jack Smith moved to dismiss two federal cases against former President Donald Trump, citing presidential immunity and the constitutional policy barring the prosecution of sitting presidents, while Trump simultaneously declared a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports. Concurrently, a New York court found Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts regarding hush money payments, though sentencing was indefinitely postponed to prevent the conviction of an active president. Legal analysts note that while these federal cases can be refiled depending on future political control, Trump and his allies view the dismissals as a definitive victory against politically motivated prosecutions.

How AI is revolutionising science

Bear, Andy Davis, Alex Zarankov, Emily Shuckborough, Adi Rakhoum, Andy Cooper, Alok Jha

Generative AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery by accelerating drug development, exemplified by Insilico Medicine's rapid creation of an IPF treatment, while simultaneously advancing climate modeling and animal communication research through sophisticated pattern recognition. Autonomous robotic labs and tools like AlphaFold are further democratizing innovation by processing vast datasets and conducting thousands of experiments, though this surge in capability has triggered significant concerns regarding research integrity and AI-generated fraud. As investment flows into these multidisciplinary fields, the industry faces critical challenges in establishing robust data standards and regulations to ensure these tools achieve the projected "golden age" of discovery without compromising scientific validity.

Ground assault: Israeli forces invade Lebanon

Rosie Bloor, Greg Karlstrom, Noah Snyder, Andrew Palmer

Israel has initiated a targeted ground incursion into southern Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure and facilitate the return of displaced residents, a move supported by the Biden administration only under strict conditions of limited scope. Simultaneously, Japan's political landscape has shifted as Ishiba Shigeru secured the prime ministership through an unprecedented nine-way contest, signaling a pivot toward conservative liberal policies despite facing an unstable coalition. While these geopolitical maneuvers reshape regional stability, separate corporate commentary highlights the detrimental impact of mandatory "sandwich lunches" on workplace efficiency and employee well-being.

Sudan: inside the world’s worst war

Since April 2024, Rapid Support Forces have besieged Al-Fasher, systematically destroying critical infrastructure and targeting non-Arab Zagawa civilians in acts that experts allege constitute war crimes and genocide. Satellite imagery and human rights investigations confirm the devastation of residential areas, the looting of South Hospital, and the intentional severing of power and water supplies, driving over 100,000 people to flee into conditions of severe malnutrition. With the United Nations declaring famine in nearby camps and international bodies investigating potential atrocities, the crisis threatens to destabilize the broader region while global attention remains insufficient to halt the escalating humanitarian catastrophe.

Is AI the future of movie-making?

Generative AI startups like Runway are deploying text-to-video tools that condense days of visual effects work into seconds, enabling users to manipulate frames and virtual camera movements to create everything from indie shorts to potential feature films. While major tech giants are racing to launch their own generators and industry leaders predict AI will soon produce indistinguishable live-action content, current applications remain strongest in animation and sci-fi genres where photorealism is less critical. This technological shift is widely expected to democratize filmmaking by lowering costs and diversifying storytellers, even as it sparks ethical debates regarding the displacement of traditional actors and crew members.

The World Ahead 2024: five stories to watch out for

Tom Standage, Chen Boyen

The 2024 global landscape is defined by simultaneous high-stakes political shifts, including the historic U.S. and Taiwanese elections that could alter cross-strait security and U.S. foreign policy trajectories. Concurrently, the eVTOL industry aims to launch commercial pilot services during the Paris Olympics while facing regulatory hurdles that prioritize safety over autonomy. Furthermore, the BRICS bloc is expanding to challenge the U.S.-led order through new financial mechanisms, even as AI regulation pivots toward addressing immediate algorithmic harms and industrial decarbonization accelerates via new thermal technologies.

Can AI help weather forecasting save lives?

Following Hurricane Otis's devastating Category 5 landfall in 2023, experts highlight a critical global disparity where underfunding has degraded weather station infrastructure in the Global South. This gap is being addressed through private sector AI initiatives from companies like Google DeepMind and Atmo, which offer affordable, high-resolution forecasting tools now deployed in nations like Uganda and Kenya. While these disruptive technologies complement traditional models to reduce prediction costs, widespread investment is essential to ensure functional disaster warning systems protect vulnerable populations from rising climate volatility.

Hoax school shootings: inside America's epidemic

In February 2023, a coordinated wave of sophisticated SWAT hoaxes targeting schools across the United States, including a specific incident at Aspen Elementary School that triggered a lockdown for 500 students and deployed over 90 first responders, highlighted the rise of organized criminal enterprises utilizing dark web services and AI-generated voices. Investigators linked these events to known swatters and characterized the attacks as potential domestic terrorism after finding consistent scripts and high-tech anonymization tactics that evade traditional tracking. While 16 states have since elevated these offenses to felonies and VoIP providers like TextNow have tightened security measures, the FBI continues to struggle with identifying perpetrators due to the anonymity provided by VPNs and cryptocurrency payments.

What happens to your brain as you age

This comprehensive review details the human brain's trajectory from neural tube formation at two weeks post-conception through the asynchronous maturation of reward and control centers during adolescence, which explains heightened risk-taking behaviors. The analysis further examines how structural changes peak in the 30s and 40s with white matter volume decline, while hormonal shifts during menopause and cortical thinning in later life alter cognitive efficiency and emotional regulation. Finally, recent evidence of high-cognitive brain wave spikes during cardiac arrest suggests that significant neural activity, including potential life recall, can persist briefly after the cessation of heartbeat.