Latest Interviews

Why Markets May Be Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Hikes

Rob Kaplan, Warsh, Alison Nathan, Robert Kaplan

On September 22, 2026, Goldman Sachs Exchanges featured former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan analyzing the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, a move driven by persistent 3% inflation rather than market speculation. Kaplan highlighted the Fed's cautious outlook, noting that conflicting economic forces—specifically booming AI infrastructure versus sluggish housing markets—support a decision to pause further increases until December despite Treasury yields exceeding 5%. While maintaining that FOMC members operate free from political pressure, Kaplan warned that a prolonged supply shock risks broadening inflation if economic data such as PCE and CPI indicators in October show no sign of firming.

Must Read Research: Walmart & Ads; Quantum, Computing Power Trading; Lodging Demand

Candace Browning

Walmart's advertising segment has grown to $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026 with 70% operating margins, leveraging 150 million weekly customers to outpace traditional media through strategic partnerships. Parallel to this commercial expansion, the technology sector is accelerating quantum computing applications while transforming compute into a tradable asset class, evidenced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's planned launch of GPU rental futures. Meanwhile, hospitality executives report a robust C-shaped recovery driven by improved travel demand, as media developers increasingly prioritize labor costs over equipment expenses in their infrastructure planning.

Must Read Research: Russell Concentration, Hazardous Trash is the New Treasure; AI Financing

Russell, Candace Browning, Savita Subramanian, Nandita Nayar, Neha Kota

Savita Subramanian warns that passive indices face extreme concentration risks as the top ten Russell 1000 stocks command 35% of the index, while leveraged ETFs now hold over $75 billion to amplify volatility. Amidst this market structure shift, Nandita Nayar highlights a critical scarcity in hazardous waste disposal infrastructure where zero new landfills have been permitted since 1996, leaving Clean Harbors with over 65% of North American incineration capacity. Simultaneously, Neha Kota analyzes a divergence in AI-linked credit markets where high-yield spreads have widened due to data center stress, prompting a strategy to leg into the remaining $92 billion in expected 2026 supply.

The data black hole at the center of AI

The event analyzes the prevailing AI paradigm where massive data volume and compute-intensive reinforcement learning drive progress rather than sample efficiency, creating a booming market for human expert labeling. This approach contrasts sharply with human learning capabilities, as current models require millions of times more data to master tasks like driving or robotics, yet still achieve rapid open-source convergence by leveraging public data. Looking ahead, the discussion projects that while white-collar roles will expand due to AI complementing human work, the ultimate path to solving efficiency bottlenecks may lie in automating the AI research process itself.

Rising airfares no match for a consumer going full throttle on experiences

Andrew Didora, TJ Thornton

Presented at the May 20th BVA conference, airline executives and analysts projected flat domestic capacity for mid-2026 to match a 21% year-over-year fare increase while relying on AI to optimize margins rather than drive demand. Concurrently, leisure market data highlights a persistent K-shaped recovery where premium segments like cruises and wellness outperform, supported by high-income consumers less sensitive to rising prices. Sector outlooks indicate that capacity discipline will remain the primary airline strategy throughout the second half of 2026, contingent on geopolitical stability and oil price trends.

Will AI Make Markets Less Efficient?

Osman Ali, Alison Nathan, George Lee

Goldman Sachs' Global Co-Head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, Osman Ali, discusses how his team leverages AI and machine learning to analyze market sentiment across 15,000 stocks daily, capturing the fact that over half of recent equity returns are now driven by themes rather than fundamentals. Ali explains that while advanced language models enhance market efficiency, their widespread adoption creates new alpha opportunities through crowding effects and predictable herd behavior, which the firm actively models to exploit. This strategy relies on a hybrid approach combining proprietary data, custom technology, and human experience to navigate a zero-sum game where increasing market complexity continuously generates fresh sources of value.

How To Build A Company With AI From The Ground Up

Diana Hu

This presentation argues that AI must function as a company's central operating system rather than a peripheral tool, driving a shift toward closed-loop systems that render the entire organization queryable for automated decision-making. In this model, traditional middle-management hierarchies are eliminated and replaced by AI agents that execute engineering tasks and manage workflows, allowing human leaders to focus on strategy as founders, builders, or directly responsible individuals. By leveraging these "AI software factories," startups gain a decisive advantage over incumbents to achieve tenfold velocity increases and operate with human headcount replaced by optimized token usage.

Natural Gas in Focus: Iran Conflict Could Have ‘Very Painful’ Consequences

Samantha Dart, Alison Nathan

Ongoing attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure have eliminated 20% of global supplies with a three-to-five-year recovery timeline, creating a critical inventory deficit that exceeds current alternative flows from China. Although prices have surged 50% to 70%, these levels remain insufficient to trigger widespread demand destruction in Asia, leaving markets vulnerable to severe winter spikes if the conflict prolongs. Experts warn that this uncertainty allows prices to creep upward without forcing the necessary industrial shutdowns, meaning a worst-case scenario could drive rates 100% higher to rebalance inventories before next winter.

The Meta Leaks Are Worse Than You Think

Rob Wiblin

Leaked internal documents from Meta reveal that the company prioritized $16 billion in annual revenue derived from scam advertisements over consumer safety, deliberately blocking effective fraud mitigation measures that cost billions in potential earnings. This strategy involved targeting vulnerable demographics, neutralizing regulators through data manipulation, and treating billions in regulatory fines as an acceptable operational expense. The disclosure underscores a critical governance failure in self-regulation, prompting proposals to embed independent technical experts within high-risk AI systems to ensure real-time oversight.

Why does Elon Musk want to put data centres in space? | The Economist

Elon Musk, Tom Standage, Alex Hern

Elon Musk has merged XAI into SpaceX and filed an FCC application to deploy one million satellites, aiming to establish orbital data centers powered by sun-synchronous orbits to achieve terawatt-scale annual capacity. While Musk targets lunar manufacturing and mass drivers to lower launch costs, OpenAI's Sam Altman and industry analysts currently dismiss the concept as technically infeasible due to prohibitive expenses and unrepairable hardware failure rates. Despite this skepticism, competitors including StarCloud, Google, Jeff Bezos, and Eric Schmidt are advancing their own pilot projects or securing launch capacity to test the viability of space-based computing.

How did the Democrats learn to win again?

Zohran Mamdani, Charlotte Howard, James Bennett, John Priddo

Following victories in Virginia and New Jersey, Democratic governors Jennifer Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill established a pragmatic, affordability-focused governing model that contrasts sharply with the radical left-wing platform of New York's Zoran Mamdani. These elections intensified the Democratic Party's internal strategic tension between moderate problem-solvers and progressive ideologues, a division exemplified by Jared Golden's retirement and the absence of a unified national platform for the 2028 cycle. As Republicans seek to weaponize Mamdani's candidacy to paint the entire party as radical, Democratic strategists now face the imperative of balancing diverse local successes with a coherent national message.

How Donald Trump made the Gaza talks happen

Donald Trump, Jason Palmer, Anshel Pfeffer

Amid unprecedented war fatigue, the Trump administration has deployed a high-level delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Sharm El Sheikh to drive an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The proposed Phase 1 plan mandates a full halt to hostilities, a partial Israeli withdrawal, and a reciprocal exchange of 48 Israeli hostages for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners to prevent famine and release military reservists. While long-term governance details regarding disarmament and international security forces remain deferred, the U.S. is aggressively enforcing this framework to bypass previous diplomatic failures and secure a permanent end to the conflict.

Is McKinsey losing its crown to AI?

Jason Palmer, Tom Lee-Devlin

McKinsey is grappling with stalled revenue growth and a 20% shrinkage in its market lead over Boston Consulting Group following significant workforce reductions and a strategic pivot toward digital capabilities. This erosion of dominance coincides with encroachment from technology firms like Palantir and OpenAI, which are bypassing traditional advisory models by directly deploying engineers to implement AI solutions. The industry now faces a structural transformation where AI threatens to commoditize junior-level analytical work, forcing firms to redefine their value proposition against emerging self-service client capabilities.

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

Dwarkesh

A July 2025 analysis challenges industry forecasts by arguing that current large language models cannot replace white-collar workers due to a fundamental lack of continual learning and context accumulation. While dismissing the immediate arrival of autonomous computer agents, the speaker projects that end-to-end tax filing capabilities will emerge by 2028 and human-level on-the-job learning will arrive around 2032, contingent on shifting from data scaling to algorithmic breakthroughs. The presentation frames these timelines as probabilistic bets, warning that post-2030 progress will rely on overcoming physical constraints to enable a gradual intelligence explosion rather than an immediate singularity.

Will legal challenges end the trade war?

Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked most of President Trump's sweeping tariffs in a May 29, 2025 ruling, determining that the executive branch lacked the intelligible limits required to impose duties on Canada, China, and Mexico under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While the administration plans to appeal to the Supreme Court and may shift toward temporary Section 122 tariffs or sector-specific Section 301 investigations to maintain revenue, the decision significantly alters the legal landscape by invalidating the broad, unlimited authority claimed by the previous strategy. This pivotal judgment introduces substantial market uncertainty regarding future tariff levels and fiscal projections, as analysts anticipate a transition from across-the-board rates to more restrictive, country-specific measures.