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  1. The Economist22 min

    When the levy doesn’t break: a trade-war world adjusts

    Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Rachana Shanbhog, Owen Winter, Lane Green

    Markets and investors are reacting to a shift in Donald Trump's protectionist agenda, characterized by broader steel and aluminum tariffs and a predicted trade war with Canada and Mexico that threatens to raise costs without boosting domestic production. Simultaneously, hard-right political parties in Europe have gained significant ground, now securing 24% of the continental vote and breaking post-war voting records in Germany, driven largely by economic insecurity and immigration anxieties. Complementing these geopolitical and economic shifts, new research by Michael Erard debunks cultural myths regarding the significance of first words and deathbed statements, reframing them as products of specific societal expectations and medical realities rather than universal truths.

  2. Jane Street1h 0m

    Finding Signal in the Noise: Machine Learning and the Markets with In Young Cho

    In Young Cho, Ron Minsky

    Inyoung Cho details her transition from biology to Jane Street, where she now leads machine learning initiatives that leverage thousands of GPUs and terabytes of daily market data to navigate the anti-inductive nature of financial signals. Her presentation contrasts the firm's direct client trading model, which mitigates market impact through human interaction, with modern research pipelines that prioritize data discipline over model interpretability to prevent overfitting in high-frequency environments. Looking forward, Cho outlines how Jane Street is applying deep learning and foundation models to extract signals from multimodal data while refining internal tools through structured training that balances rapid exploration with robust production systems.

  3. The Economist25 min

    Thirty-day trial? A Ukraine-ceasefire proposal

    Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Oliver Carroll, Shashank Joshi, Sophie Petter, Ainsley Johnston

    Ukrainian officials accepted a US-brokered proposal for a reciprocal 30-day ceasefire and immediate negotiations to end the conflict, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Watts leading constructive bilateral talks that secured President Zelensky's public endorsement. While the agreement paves the way for resuming American military assistance, the final outcome remains contingent on Moscow's response to demands for Ukraine's neutrality and potential territorial concessions. Parallel to these diplomatic developments, a new longitudinal study using UK Biobank data identifies chronic loneliness as a primary predictor of early death, carrying a mortality risk equivalent to physical inactivity and outweighing genetic factors in overall longevity.

  4. Goldman Sachs20 min

    How tariffs will impact the US economy

    David Mericle, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Miracle, joined by host Alison Nathan in a March 10 *Exchanges* episode, revised the full-year effective tariff forecast upward to approximately 10 percentage points, driven by implementations on Canada, Mexico, and proposed auto duties. Consequently, the firm lowered its 2025 GDP growth outlook to 1.7% and raised the recession probability to 20%, while maintaining a Federal Reserve rate-cutting trajectory that diverges from market expectations due to elevated inflation near 3%. Although Miracle dismisses the current environment as true stagflation, he warns that expanded trade policy uncertainty poses a more severe risk to business investment and hiring than in 2019.

  5. Sequoia Capital54 min

    How AI Breakout Harvey is Transforming Legal Services, with CEO Winston Weinberg

    Winston Weinberg, Sonya Huang, Pat Grady

    Founded in July 2022 by Winston Weinberg and Gabe, Harvey targets the $400 billion U.S. legal market by deploying specialized agentic workflows that prioritize citation accuracy over generic chat interfaces. The company differentiates itself through a hybrid revenue-share model and a rigorous technical architecture utilizing OpenAI's O-series models alongside proprietary process data to eliminate hallucinations in high-stakes legal tasks. By collaborating with top-tier law firms as design partners and transitioning toward automating commoditized work, Harvey aims to fundamentally shift industry economics from billable hours to fixed fees while expanding access to justice.

  6. Y Combinator8 min

    GPT-4.5 = Big Model Energy | YC Decoded

    Tom Blomfield

    OpenAI has released GPT-4.5, a significantly larger and more human-like model that surpasses its predecessor in emotional intelligence and creative fluency while facing higher costs and specific limitations in complex STEM reasoning. Market reception remains measured as benchmarks show incremental rather than revolutionary improvements, leading researchers to predict a future convergence of general and reasoning capabilities in the upcoming GPT-5 architecture. Simultaneously, YC is hosting a free AI Startup School in San Francisco featuring industry leaders such as Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Satya Nadella to support emerging AI talent.

  7. The Economist23 min

    Sects and balances: a violent flare-up in Syria

    Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Gareth Brown, Josh Roberts, Tim Cross

    Following the December fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, a violent insurrection led by a former Alawite military council has triggered widespread sectarian killings in Syria's coastal heartland, severely testing Ahmed al-Shara's new government as it struggles to control radical factions while racing against a thirty-day deadline to investigate atrocities. Simultaneously, a global financial pivot is occurring as soaring borrowing costs and maturing low-rate mortgages reverse the investment calculus that previously favored equities, compelling homeowners to prioritize debt repayment over market exposure. In the aerospace sector, Albedo Space is disrupting the market by deploying a commercial satellite constellation in Very Low Earth Orbit to deliver ten-centimeter resolution imagery at one-tenth the cost of military systems, aiming to democratize high-fidelity surveillance for both commercial and limited governmental applications.

  8. The Economist24 min

    No question, Mark: Canada’s new PM

    Mark Carney, Donald Trump, Rose Girone, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Rob Russo, Sarah Wu, Anne Rowe

    Mark Carney has won the Liberal Party leadership to succeed Justin Trudeau, leveraging his technocratic background and a nationalist backlash against US tariff threats to close the polling gap with the Conservatives ahead of a potential April or May election. Concurrently, China is driving a $205 billion winter sports strategy to revitalize its Northeast Rust Belt, with Harbin serving as the global hub for this sector expansion designed to reach 300 million participants by 2030. In a tribute to historical resilience, Rose Gerone, the last known Holocaust survivor in New York, passed away at 113 after surviving Kristallnacht and sustaining her family through a knitting business in Shanghai and the Adirondacks.

  9. Milken Institute37 min

    Sovereign Wealth Funds: Lessons for the US | Finance Forum 2025

    Caitlin MacLean, Victoria Barbary, Angela Rodell, Tarek Shoukri, Kaitlyn McLean

    The U.S. Treasury Department is currently soliciting private sector input to design a national Sovereign Wealth Fund using a blank-slate approach for capitalization and investment mandates. Drawing on global best practices and case studies like the Alaska Permanent Fund, the proposed framework emphasizes independent governance to insulate decisions from political cycles while targeting strategic sectors such as critical minerals and AI. With further concept papers expected in the spring, the initiative aims to establish a bipartisan structure that catalyzes high-cost infrastructure deployment without crowding out private commercial activity.

  10. a16z42 min

    Agent Experience: Building an Open Web for the AI Era

    Matt Biilmann, Martin Casado

    Netlify is pivoting its strategy from Developer Experience to Agent Experience (AX) to ensure the open web remains the native environment for autonomous AI agents rather than content relegated to walled gardens. Driven by a surge where approximately 10,000 sites are generated daily by AI tools, the company advocates for new infrastructure primitives and formal standards to support ephemeral applications and direct machine-to-web interactions. This initiative aims to democratize high-fidelity creation while redefining the web's architectural future against a backdrop of rapidly converging creation costs and shifting developer roles.

  11. The Economist23 min

    One week in the life of Volodymyr Zelensky

    Volodymyr Zelensky, Rosie Bloor, Oliver Carroll, Sarah Lanyuk

    Amidst a sudden suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing, President Donald Trump's administration has leveraged financial demands and alleged behind-the-scenes diplomacy to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while the leader's term is legally extended under martial law to prevent destabilizing wartime elections. Parallel to this geopolitical turmoil, cultural figures like military conductor Serhii Lykomenenko and composer Gabriel De Niro are utilizing damaged venues and orchestral performances to raise funds for specific units and bolster national morale against the threat of total aid withdrawal. Historical archives from 1945 provide a contrasting backdrop of Allied victory, yet the current conflict sees Ukrainian elites and the public navigating a fragile balance between external political maneuvering and internal resilience.

  12. Milken Institute40 min

    New Pathways to Help Forgotten America | Finance Forum 2025

    Rich Ditizio, Marla Blow, Van Jones

    A panel at the Milken Institute, featuring Skoll Foundation's Marla Carter and Amazon Web Services' Dan Price, analyzes the structural retreat of the U.S. public sector and the subsequent necessity for private capital and technology to solve social challenges. The discussion details strategic pivots in philanthropy toward complex capital stacks, highlights specific tech interventions in criminal justice and infrastructure, and reframes diversity initiatives as economic imperatives rather than moral obligations. Looking forward, the speakers outline a new "Center for Advancing the American Dream" to document mentorship narratives while urging the integration of AI and community access to navigate a rapidly changing technological landscape.

  13. The Economist25 min

    Kurds in the right place: a truce nears

    Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Pyotr Zalewski, Simon Rabinovich, Danielle Zaslavsky, Henrietta McFarlane

    Following secret negotiations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and former hardline leader Devlet Bahçeli have advanced a peace initiative with imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan, aiming to end a 40-year conflict through a PKK ceasefire while securing regional stability against Israel and Western alliances. Simultaneously, President Trump's aggressive tariff escalation on China, Mexico, and Canada triggered immediate global market sell-offs and record-low consumer sentiment as nations retaliated, compounding existing economic vulnerabilities in housing and business investment. In a contrasting cultural shift, the $3.1 billion caviar industry is surging toward a projected $4.6 billion valuation by 2029, driven by viral social media trends among young consumers who are adopting unconventional pairings and spurring innovations in cultivated, fish-free alternatives.

  14. Goldman Sachs8 min

    Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin on the market impact of recent policy updates

    David Kostin, Carl, John Yang, Sarah

    Goldman Sachs strategist David Koston revised 2024 U.S. equity EPS growth forecasts downward to 9% due to a weakening economic outlook, while maintaining a 6,500 target for the S&P 500. Portfolio rotations are shifting toward defensive healthcare and consumer staples as investors grow indifferent to trade policy uncertainty, with a specific focus on low-volatility earnings and companies leveraging AI for revenue generation. Although tariff scenarios could compress margins, the firm continues to view GDP growth and the Magnificent Seven's high reinvestment rates as the primary drivers for sustained market performance pending durable economic data.

  15. Milken Institute29 min

    Community Infrastructure Building Blocks: 10,000 Communities Initiative | Finance Forum 2025

    Rachel Halfaker, Andreas Karelas, Jane Brady Knight, Amanda Li, Tony Pipa

    High demand for rural economic revitalization faces significant deployment barriers, including insufficient project scale, limited local capacity, and traditional financing models that exclude non-profits lacking credit scores. To overcome these hurdles, successful strategies now employ blended capital stacks, direct pay provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, and digital platforms that automate underwriting to reduce overhead on small-ticket clean energy investments. By shifting narratives toward rural agency and utilizing community financial institutions, stakeholders aim to establish a permanent, self-sustaining asset class that drives long-term wealth creation and strengthens national competitiveness.