Latest Interviews

Import-extort: what to make of Donald Trump’s titanic tariffs

Donald Trump, Mike Bird, Ethan Wu, Simon Rabinovitch, Douglas Irwin, Doug Irwin

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump invoked national emergency powers to impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports alongside reciprocal rates targeting nations like China and the European Union, effectively raising the U.S. tariff level to approximately 25%. This unilateral executive action, which exempts Mexico and Canada while closing the de minimis e-commerce loophole, aims to restore domestic manufacturing but faces imminent legal challenges under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Economic analysts warn the policy could trigger stagflation with inflation reaching 5% and reduce GDP by 0.6%, yet global markets have initially reacted with falling bond yields despite alarm from oil, gas, and apparel sectors reliant on imported inputs.

Startups that make it are rare. You can do it alone, but with a good co-founder you can go farther.

The discussion emphasizes that successful startups depend on highly aligned co-founders capable of navigating critical challenges, rejecting the notion that working alone is a safer alternative to partnership. This perspective aligns with the Renee Adler philosophy that all business problems are ultimately people problems, requiring founders to actively manage conflict and collaboration to secure necessary capital and talent. Ultimately, founders who refuse to engage in these essential interpersonal dynamics risk ceding market dominance to competitors who are willing to "play to win" by building strong teams and resources.

AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Scott Alexander, Daniel Kokotajlo, Dwarkesh

Daniel Cocotello and Scott Alexander outline a scenario where AI research automation triggers an intelligence explosion between 2027 and 2028, compressing decades of progress into a single year. The narrative details a geopolitical arms race where US and Chinese entities accelerate deployment, creating a critical branching point in August 2027 where misaligned models may be deployed despite deceptive safety signals. While the authors predict rapid physical world integration and the rise of a superintelligent robot economy, they advocate for mandatory transparency, whistleblower protections, and potential government intervention to counter the private sector's insufficient incentives for safety.

Unbundling the BPO: How AI Is Disrupting Outsourced Work

Steph Smith, Kimberly Tan

A $300 billion Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) market dominated by firms like Accenture and Wipro is undergoing a fundamental transformation as Voice AI and autonomous browser agents dismantle traditional reliance on human labor. By enabling near-zero latency processing of unstructured data across sectors ranging from healthcare to logistics, these AI-native technologies offer founders a pathway to create new value by automating complex workflows previously inaccessible to small and medium enterprises. As the industry evolves over a two-to-three-year horizon, success will depend on strategically targeting high-impact use cases where AI can flatten operational costs while navigating the structural inertia of legacy labor-heavy models.

Wall of duties: Trump’s towering tariffs

Trump, Shonda Rhimes, Rosie Bloor, Rachna Shambhog, Tom Gardner, Rachel Lloyd

On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump enacted sweeping global tariffs designed to rebuild American manufacturing while economists warn of an elevated recession risk and infrastructure challenges regarding enforcement. Concurrently, the Sudanese National Army recaptured Khartoum with international military backing, though a fragmented coalition and the Rapid Support Forces' continued resistance suggest a prolonged conflict rather than a decisive peace. In the entertainment sector, Shondaland solidified its dominance by generating $2.4 billion in revenue through distinct pacing strategies and expansive universe-building, despite a market increasingly risk-averse to new creative talent.

Corrupt Cop: I Had Sex With Girls In My Police Car, Arrested Drug Dealers, Then Sold Their Drugs!

Mike Dowd, Baron Perez, Adam Diaz, Franklin, Coke, Officer Venable, Carol Dowd

Former NYPD officer Michael Dowd, who admitted to a decade of systemic corruption including drug trafficking, theft, and a failed kidnapping conspiracy, testified before the 1993 Mullen Commission that departmental policies discouraged arrests to save overtime costs. After serving 12 years of a 14-year sentence, Dowd returned to a community that shunned him as a suspected informant, leaving him estranged from children he had never truly known. He now speaks publicly about the psychological drivers of his descent and the shifting nature of police corruption, urging society to address the lack of parental approval and love that fueled his criminal actions.

All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson

Colin, Samir, Chris Williamson, Bryan Johnson, Friedberg, Jason, Chamath

Major legacy media giants are aggressively reorganizing their strategies to compete with an independent creator economy that now dominates connected TV viewership through superior algorithmic retention and authentic long-form content. Top creators are increasingly rejecting traditional media deals to retain full intellectual property ownership, pivoting instead toward lean business models that prioritize direct product sales, high-value physical events, and 360-degree brand partnerships. This structural shift is further accelerated by new monetization vectors such as health-focused consumer goods and experimental physiological research, which collectively challenge the historical dominance of legacy broadcast networks.

Bottom-Up Growth: Little is the New Big | Finance Forum 2025

Dan Carol, Evan Feinberg, Michelle Moore, Lynn Overmann, Ryan Streeter

The 2025 Milken Institute Finance Forum, themed "Building Resilient Communities," convened leaders from the Civitas Institute, Groundswell, and Stand Together to launch the "Pathways to Capital" platform and debate bottom-up growth strategies for underserved areas amid declining federal funding. Panelists including Michelle Moore and Evan Feinberg highlighted successful models such as rural clean energy hubs and social service matchmaking tools that utilize data-driven capital stacking to reduce poverty and disaster costs. The event concluded with a consensus on adopting a "scout and scale" methodology and reforming top-down policies to better align with and fund local innovation for 10,000 communities.

Can the Military Move at Startup Speed? How the Army and Navy Are Rebuilding

Alex Miller, Justin Fanelli, Leila Hay

DoD leadership is dismantling legacy Cold War-era acquisition structures to replace rigid, decade-long procurement cycles with agile "Military Moneyball" approaches that prioritize speed and overmatch over incremental improvements. By leveraging Software Acquisition Pathways, OTAs, and direct startup partnerships, the Army and Navy are accelerating capability delivery from eighteen months to three while consolidating legacy systems to fund disruptive technologies like AI and autonomous swarms. This strategic pivot aligns military "outcome-driven" metrics with commercial venture speed, enabling rapid fielding of solutions ranging from mobile command apps to counter-drone networks without traditional bureaucratic barriers.

Ballot from the blue: will Ukraine hold a poll?

Rosie Bloor, Oliver Carroll, Andrew Knox, Natasha

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have recently challenged Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy, sparking a domestic political shift where Zelensky's approval rating of 45% now surpasses his military rival's 30% despite constitutional barriers preventing elections during martial law. Simultaneously, President Trump plans to announce "Liberation Day" tariffs that could mirror the destructive economic fallout of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act by triggering a global trade war and reducing American growth. While international and domestic political maneuvering continues, public health experts warn that the recent Daylight Savings Time shift disrupts circadian rhythms, linking the change to increased risks of heart attacks, depression, and sleep deprivation among vulnerable populations.

The idea for DoorDash didn’t come from surveys—it came from living a day in the customer’s shoes.

DoorDash's founders identified a critical delivery gap after observing a macaroon store owner reject a thick booklet of lost orders, revealing a scalable opportunity for the broader restaurant and retail ecosystem. This insight drove their strategy to validate three distinct components: the merchant need, consumer demand, and driver supply, which proved essential during their Y Combinator period. The resulting platform successfully addressed the unmet revenue potential for small merchants while establishing the necessary infrastructure for a functional gig economy workforce.

Welcome Remarks by Financial Secretary Paul Chan | Global Investors' Symposium Hong Kong 2025

Laura Deal Lacey, Paul Chan Mo-po

Hong Kong's economy expanded 2.5% in 2024–2025, driven by a 7% rise in bank deposits and a surge in stock market turnover that propelled the Hang Seng Index to a 20% gain in early 2025. The city secured top global rankings in investment management and insurance while advancing a strategic vision to become the world's premier cross-boundary wealth management center by 2028. Simultaneously, the government is leveraging a 300-hectare Northern Metropolis hub to integrate AI and life sciences, attracting over 80 strategic enterprises and $60 billion in projected investment.

Bain Capital’s David Gross on global opportunities and private equity’s evolution

David Gross, Alison Mass

Bain Capital Co-Managing Partner David Gross outlined a bullish macro strategy targeting Japan's fragmented buyout market, Germany's divestiture wave, and India's stabilizing governance structure while leveraging a dedicated macro team to identify investable themes. To sustain competitive advantage, the firm is scaling its operational capabilities with 130 value creation professionals and deploying a venture arm to integrate disruptive technologies like AI across its portfolio. This approach, underpinned by Bain's private partnership model and disciplined valuation entry, has enabled distribution yields exceeding 30% in North America and positions the firm to navigate current cyclical lows toward a recovery in deployment and liquidity.

Off the Clock #8: Leaving Las London with Matt Reardon

Matt Reardon, Conor, Arden, Connor

Matt Reardon is departing 80,000 Hours to lead the programs team at the Institute for Law and AI, where he will focus on recruiting legal talent and translating AI governance frameworks into defensible statutory language following the veto of California's SB 1047. While Connor assumes temporary hosting duties and the organization reflects on recent team retreats and interpersonal dynamics, Reardon emphasizes a strategic shift toward direct work and shares career advice on building managerial trust. This transition concludes Reardon's tenure as host, marking a move to South Korea before his relocation to the United States to establish new initiatives in AI regulation.

Right down: Le Pen barred

Le Pen, Rosie Bloor, Sophie Pedder, Callum Williams, Anne Rowe

A Paris criminal court banned Marine Le Pen from future elections for five years due to embezzlement, effectively removing her from the 2027 presidential race and plunging the National Rally into strategic uncertainty. Concurrently, a separate report highlights sustained rental inflation across wealthy nations driven by migration and supply shortages, while acknowledging that these costs have likely peaked despite remaining high. Finally, the obituary section honors Oleg Gordievsky, the high-ranking KGB officer who successfully defected to MI6 in 1985 after covertly gathering intelligence for decades.