Latest Interviews
Showing 106–120 of 139 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- 80,000 Hours2h 18m
#41 - David Roodman on incarceration, geomagnetic storms, & becoming a world-class researcher
David Roodman, Holden Karnofsky, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
David Rude, a former theoretical mathematician turned independent researcher, specializes in replicating and reconstructing empirical studies on high-impact causes such as criminal justice, deworming, and geomagnetic storm risks. His methodology often challenges established conclusions, finding zero deterrence effect in harsh incarceration laws, identifying data artifacts in American deworming studies, and downplaying the probability of catastrophic solar events compared to public perception. Currently based at Open Philanthropy, Rude leverages his independence from academic incentives to scrutinize methodological robustness and advocate for policy shifts, such as prioritizing savings over microcredit loans.
- 80,000 Hours2h 12m
#40 - Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictions
Katja Grace, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Led by Katja Grace, the three-year-old research organization AI Impacts employs empirical methods to forecast artificial intelligence timelines, finding that experts medianly predict high-level machine intelligence in 45 years while identifying significant biases in how these estimates are framed. Their analysis of compute trajectories reveals that the cost of hardware equivalent to the human brain has dropped dramatically, yet experts remain skeptical of sudden "intelligence explosions" due to historical precedents of incremental technological progress. Consequently, the team advocates for increased investment in AI safety research and the development of diverse forecasting skills to navigate the uncertainty surrounding future AI impacts.
- 80,000 Hours2h 18m
#39 - Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Spencer Greenberg, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Spencer Greenberg updates the portfolio status of four Sparkwave-backed companies while presenting extensive research on intrinsic values, overconfidence calibration, and Bayesian evidence evaluation. His analysis distinguishes how political and demographic groups prioritize different core values and introduces a predictive model for identifying when individuals are likely to overestimate their skills or underestimate difficult tasks. Furthermore, Greenberg demonstrates practical applications of these frameworks through case studies on political collusion, nuclear disarmament, and scientific replication, ultimately advocating for a methodical approach to belief updating that balances prior probabilities with specific evidence.
- 80,000 Hours2h 0m
#38 - Prof Ng on anticipating effective altruism decades ago & how to make a much happier world
Prof Ng, Yew-Kwang Ng, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Yu-Kwang Ng, an economist who independently pioneered core effective altruism concepts in the 1990s, advocates for a hedonistic utilitarian framework that prioritizes subjective well-being as the sole intrinsic moral value to guide public policy. His research proposes specific interventions ranging from high progressive taxation to correct relative competition and environmental externalities, to the development of brain stimulation technologies and welfare biology for mitigating wild animal suffering and existential risks. By rejecting traditional deontological and capability-based ethical systems in favor of cardinal utility comparisons, Ng urges a global shift toward policies that maximize net welfare across current and future generations.
- 80,000 Hours1h 44m
#37 - GiveWell picks top charities by estimating the unknowable. James Snowden on how they do it.
James Snowden, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Founded a decade ago by Holden Karnofsky and Ellie Hassenfeld, GiveWell directs approximately $100 million annually to nine evidence-backed charities in international development after applying rigorous cost-effectiveness and transparency criteria. The San Francisco-based organization recently expanded its portfolio to include five new top recommendations while navigating internal ethical debates over suicide prevention and evolving its analytical models to account for leverage and funding effects. With a team of over 20 employees focused on an "epistemic culture," the group continues to explore policy interventions and speculative research opportunities beyond traditional direct service models.
- 80,000 Hours2h 5m
#36 - Tanya Singh on ending the operations management bottleneck in effective altruism
Tanya Singh, Professor Bostrom, Tara Mac Aulay, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
An episode featuring Tanya Singh from the Future of Humanity Institute and representatives from the Centre for Effective Altruism addresses the critical shortage of operational talent hindering the scaling of effective altruism organizations. The discussion defines operations as creative problem-solving roles that act as force multipliers for researchers, highlighting open positions at GiveWell, Open Philanthropy, and OORT that require high value alignment and adaptability. With applications for several key roles closing within days, the event outlines the specific skills, such as systems prototyping and automation, necessary for candidates to prevent organizational stagnation in a sector marked by significant growth potential.
- 80,000 Hours1h 23m
#35 - Tara Mac Aulay on the audacity to fix the world without asking permission
Tara Mac Aulay, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Former CEA CEO and Operations Specialist Tara McCauley leveraged a background in data-driven optimization across sectors like healthcare and humanitarian aid to transform organizational efficiency, notably saving millions at St. Vincent's Hospital and mitigating fatal systemic errors in Bhutan. She applies these lessons at the Centre for Effective Altruism by prioritizing "invisible" infrastructure and a culture where the best argument wins, while advocating for operations as a distinct, high-skill career path essential for scaling mission-critical work. Currently, McCauley is recruiting UK and US Operations Specialists, an Events Specialist, and a CEO Office Project Manager to further build the sector's operational capacity before the application deadline on July 6th.
- 80,000 Hours2h 19m
#34 - We use the worst voting system that exists. Here's how Aaron Hamlin is going to fix it.
Aaron Hamlin, Edwin Edwards, David Duke, Buddy Roemer, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
The Center for Election Science leverages a $600,000 Open Philanthropy grant to advance voting reform by advocating for Approval Voting as a superior alternative to the flawed First-Past-The-Post system. By targeting municipal ballot initiatives in cities like Fargo and San Francisco, the organization aims to break the two-party duopoly and elect moderate consensus candidates without the complexities of Instant Runoff Voting. This grassroots strategy seeks to scale successful local implementations into state and federal adoption, ultimately reducing political polarization and increasing voter efficacy through a robust, transparent electoral mechanism.
- 80,000 Hours2h 26m
#32 - Bryan Caplan on whether his Case Against Education holds up, totalitarianism, & open borders
Bryan Caplan, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Econometrician Tyler Cowen's analysis of *The Case Against Education* argues that formal schooling primarily functions as a signaling mechanism for conformity rather than a generator of human capital, leading to a societal misallocation of resources toward credential inflation. This framework extends to global policy, where Cowen contends that open borders and deregulated housing offer superior welfare gains compared to current systems, while highlighting the existential risks of permanent totalitarianism if technological advancements eliminate competitive checks on power. Drawing from these premises, he advises individuals to prioritize vocational over academic pathways unless a degree is strictly necessary for entry, and suggests that effective altruism should focus on immigration reform and the release of non-violent offenders to maximize moral impact.
- 80,000 Hours48 min
#31 - Prof Dafoe on defusing the political & economic risks posed by existing AI capabilities
Prof Dafoe, Allan Dafoe, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
The Future of Humanity Institute's AI Governance program unites a dozen researchers to analyze the technical, political, and institutional challenges posed by the transition to superhuman AI. Led by figures such as Alan Daffo, Demis Hassabis, and Vladimir Putin, the field addresses risks ranging from labor displacement and strategic instability to the potential for a dangerous "race to the finish" among nation-states. Despite the current fragmentation of the discipline, experts maintain a strategic focus on building global cooperation frameworks to harness advanced AI's vast potential while preventing catastrophic outcomes.
- 80,000 Hours2h 2m
#30 - Dr Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
Dr Eva Vivalt, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Y Combinator launched a $100 million, three-to-five-year randomized controlled trial providing $1,000 monthly to approximately 1,000 low-income young adults to analyze shifts in time use, health, and well-being while deliberately withholding results until the study's conclusion to prevent narrative distortion. This initiative is situated within a broader academic discourse highlighting the limited generalizability of development interventions and the prevalence of optimism bias among policymakers, who often neglect variance and negative results in favor of optimistic point estimates. Experts argue that despite these methodological challenges and academic incentives prioritizing novelty over synthesis, aggregated expert priors and robust RCTs remain essential for refining evidence-based policy and overcoming the "naturalistic heuristic" in emerging fields like clean meat adoption.
- 80,000 Hours1h 3m
#28 - Dr Cotton-Barratt on why scientists should need insurance, PhD strategy & fast AI progresses
Dr Cotton-Barratt, Dr Owen Cotton-Barratt, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Owen Cotton Barrett advocates for early-career researchers to prioritize high-impact problems over academic prestige and proposes internalizing scientific liability through insurance mechanisms to address catastrophic risks like pandemics. He further outlines a diversified AI safety strategy that balances immediate action with long-term infrastructure building, noting that the Future of Humanity Institute is launching a new program to support pre-paradigmatic research without requiring a PhD. The discussion also highlights upcoming EA Global events in San Francisco, London, and other locations as key opportunities for community engagement in these fields.
- 80,000 Hours2h 17m
#27 - Dr Tom Inglesby on careers and policies that reduce global catastrophic biological risks
Dr. Thomas Inglesby and the Center for Health Security outline a strategic shift from natural pandemic preparedness to addressing global catastrophic biological risks as biotechnology becomes increasingly accessible. To mitigate these threats, the organization advocates for a unified U.S. biodefense strategy and the creation of a dedicated public health emergency fund to overcome historical funding delays. Concurrently, the Center's Emerging Leaders Fellowship and partnerships with the Open Philanthropy Project aim to cultivate a multidisciplinary workforce capable of integrating deep scientific expertise with policy implementation.
- 80,000 Hours1h 45m
#26 - Marie Gibbons on how exactly clean meat is made & whats needed to get it in every supermarket
Marie Gibbons, Natalie Cargill, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Marie Gibbons predicts that cell-based meat will reach the consumer market by year-end at a premium price, with production costs expected to achieve parity with conventional meat within a decade through improved bioreactor scaling and media optimization. The technology relies on harvesting satellite cells via humane biopsy and utilizing plant-based scaffolds to create initial burger formats, while future whole-cut developments depend on overcoming growth factor dependencies through recombinant proteins or genetic editing. Gibbons emphasizes that accelerating this transition requires coordinated industry efforts across major research hubs in Boston and London to prioritize species-specific biological protocols and reduce animal suffering more effectively than advocacy alone.
- 80,000 Hours2h 40m
#25 - Prof Robin Hanson on why we have to lie to ourselves about why we do what we do
Robin Hanson, Kevin Simler, Keiran Harris, Rob Wiblin
Robin Hanson and Kevin Simler propose in *The Elephant in the Brain* that human institutions like education, medicine, and charity function primarily as signals of status and virtue rather than fulfilling their stated goals. By exposing how self-deception and hidden motives sustain these systems, the authors argue that effective reform requires designing policies that allow individuals to maintain their high-minded self-image while actually achieving better real-world outcomes. This perspective challenges conventional wisdom across sociology and futurology, urging a shift from abstract idealism to pragmatic strategies aligned with true human incentives.