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  1. Goldman Sachs10 min

    Opportunities amidst historic volatility

    Josh Schiffrin, Chris Hussey

    Josh Schifrin and market analysts assess a volatile economic landscape where projected tariffs threaten to spark inflation and a temporary growth dip while creating a binary risk scenario between a trade war recession or a deal-driven recovery. Treasury yields have surged following hawkish commentary on tariff-induced inflation, breaking historical inverse correlations with equities and signaling fragility in market liquidity that mirrors structural stresses without reaching COVID-era severity. Despite this turbulence, strategists recommend buying equity dips and anticipate a weakening U.S. dollar alongside bearish oil prices as the market awaits the outcomes of the 90-day tariff pause to stabilize the frenetic trading environment.

  2. Goldman Sachs36 min

    The recession question

    Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.

  3. Sequoia Capital58 min

    Arc Institute's Patrick Hsu on Building an App Store for Biology with AI

    Patrick Hsu, Josephine Chen, Pat Grady

    The ARC Institute, led by Patrick Hsu, has launched EVO2, a generative foundation model trained on genomic sequences across all domains of life to predict the functional consequences of genetic variants with state-of-the-art accuracy. By reclassifying Variants of Unknown Significance, this open-source tool aims to transform genetic testing outcomes and prevent unnecessary medical interventions while establishing a roadmap toward simulating virtual cells by 2030. This initiative reflects a strategic shift within ARC to merge academic rigor with industrial application, utilizing evolutionary data to build a unifying theory of biology rather than focusing solely on traditional drug design.

  4. a16z41 min

    Autonomy is no longer a moonshot—it’s a market

    Erin Price-Wright, Qasar Younis, Jason Brown

    Applied Intuition leverages a dual-use strategy that forces defense autonomy products to meet rigorous commercial benchmarks before government adoption, ensuring validity through real-world market competition. The company is capitalizing on the convergence of Waymo and Tesla methodologies to modernize legacy defense platforms while introducing transformative transformer-based architectures for swarm and collaborative autonomy. By bridging the gap between rapid commercial software development and the Department of Defense's traditional hardware-centric procurement culture, the firm is actively reshaping defense acquisition models to accelerate the deployment of scalable, cost-effective autonomous systems.

  5. The Economist23 min

    Bloody Sunday: Russia’s strikes on Sumy

    Jason Palmer, Tim Judah, Christian Odendal, Jess, Catherine Nixie

    Amidst escalating Russian missile strikes that killed dozens of civilians in Sumy and Krivyi Rih, US envoy General Keith Kellogg condemned the violence while President Trump's administration faces internal division over peace timelines. Simultaneously, European nations are launching aggressive recruitment campaigns to reverse brain drain caused by US policy shifts, aiming to boost strategic autonomy despite significant R&D spending gaps. In a separate economic update, the UK's Consumer Price Index continues to evolve through the Office for National Statistics' rigorous tracking of a 750-item basket that now reflects modern leisure and pet care alongside historical inflation data.

  6. All-In Podcast2h 2m

    The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein

    David Sacks, Larry Summers, Ezra Klein, Friedberg, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya

    On the eighty-day mark of President Trump's second term, the administration paused reciprocal tariffs to force global negotiations while enforcing a 125% hike on China, triggering historic market volatility and a cumulative $6 trillion loss since "Liberation Day." Critics like Larry Summers and Ezra Klein warn that this erratic "Peron-style" governance and the DOGE initiative's aggressive austerity measures risk destroying essential state capacity and triggering a deep recession, while proponents such as David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya defend the chaotic strategy as necessary game theory to secure onshoring of critical technologies and reset trade frameworks.

  7. Goldman Sachs32 min

    OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar on the race to build artificial general intelligence

    Sarah Friar, Dan Dees

    Goldman Sachs and OpenAI leaders outline a strategic pivot toward full-stack infrastructure, highlighted by a $500 billion "Stargate" investment plan designed to secure 10 gigawatts of compute power for advanced reasoning models and autonomous agents. This capital deployment addresses severe hardware bottlenecks while driving breakthroughs in O-series models that now achieve PhD-level scientific proficiency and global coding supremacy. With revenue tripling annually and immediate plans to scale AI into education and enterprise banking, OpenAI aims to reach artificial general intelligence capabilities while treating an initial public offering as a long-term objective rather than an immediate priority.

  8. a16z44 min

    Drone Warfare: The New Rules of Combat Are Here

    Matt Cronin, Ryan Tseng, Adam Bry

    Discussions with defense technology leaders from Skydio and Shield AI highlight an urgent "max-Q moment" driven by China's fearsome industrial capacity to produce drones at a scale that currently overwhelms US capabilities. The dialogue emphasizes a strategic pivot toward distributed, autonomous systems capable of operating in GPS-denied environments, leveraging rapid software iteration to close the OODA loop faster than adversaries. To counter this asymmetry, experts advocate for immediate procurement reform and the re-industrialization of the US domestic base to transform high-volume commercial manufacturing into a resilient national security asset.

  9. The Economist27 min

    The great brawl: China v America

    Donald Trump, Friedrich Merz, Betty Webb, Rosie Bloor, Don Wineland, Tom Nuttall, Anne Rowe

    Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, marked by reciprocal tariffs exceeding 125%, have triggered market volatility while forcing a strategic reshaping of global supply chains away from US dependence. Simultaneously, Germany's incoming coalition government led by Friedrich Merz has secured a mandate to address economic stagnation and defense obligations, navigating the new reality of aggressive US protectionism. In a historical parallel to current geopolitical anxieties, the life of Betty Webb, a WWII codebreaker who died at 101, has been revealed as a cautionary tale against modern fascist movements.

  10. The Economist21 min

    Art of the real: Trump bows to markets

    Trump, Rosie Bloor, Rachna Shambhog, Tom Standage, Andrew Miller

    Following President Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff pause amid market-driven recession fears, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent utilized the delay to reward non-retaliation while maintaining a 125% rate on China, prompting global leaders to prepare direct concessions on defense and trade. Simultaneously, the commercial space sector advances toward orbital data centers as StarCloud plans a 2024 AI chip demonstrator and Axiom Space operates station racks, with viability hinging on the projected launch cost reductions of SpaceX's Starship. Marking the centennial of its 1924 publication, F. Scott Fitzgerald's *The Great Gatsby* continues to define the American experience by contrasting the Jazz Age's glamour with a rigid class structure that grants the wealthy immunity from the consequences of their carelessness.

  11. Sourcery with Molly O'Shea58 min

    Base Power's $200M Series B | Co-Led by Lee Fixel, A16Z, Lightspeed, & Valor Equity Partners

    Lee Fixel, Zach Dell, Justin Lopas, Antonio Gracias, Molly

    Base Power, founded in 2023 by Zach and Justin, closed a $200 million Series B round led by Addition with new participation from Andreessen Horowitz and Lightspeed Ventures to accelerate its "violent execution" culture and vertical integration strategy. Leveraging an isolated grid launch in Texas and a proprietary utility model that reduces deployment timelines to 2–4 weeks, the company has installed over 1,000 batteries while securing partnerships with builders like Lennar and utilities such as Bandera. Backed by a talent pool drawn from SpaceX and Tesla, Base Power now aims to scale operations to 50–100 daily installations and expand across all 50 states to address surging electricity demand from AI data centers and electrification.

  12. Goldman Sachs11 min

    Recession watch: How to hedge now

    Daan Struyven, Allison Nathan, Don Stryven

    Recorded on April 8, 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts presented a strategic pivot toward hedging with commodities, projecting a 10% rise in gold to $3,300 per ounce under stagnation while forecasting a decline to $55 per barrel for Brent crude by 2026. The presentation detailed a "long gold, short oil" portfolio architecture designed to capitalize on anticipated Fed rate cuts and supply surges, respectively, with recession scenarios potentially pushing gold toward $4,250 or oil below $40. Additionally, the analysis highlighted copper's resilient long-term outlook driven by supply deficits, despite near-term volatility exacerbated by U.S. tariff announcements.

  13. The Economist23 min

    Pulp friction: the trade war bites Apple

    Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Henry Trix, Owen Winter, Holly Berman

    Following the implementation of new US tariffs and China's 104% retaliatory levy, Apple faced a $600 billion market value decline due to its heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing, prompting the Trump administration to reject Tim Cook's $500 billion investment pledge as a basis for exemptions. Concurrently, meta-analyses of 6 billion Facebook friendships reveal that Britain exhibits stronger cross-class social integration than the United States, though this connectivity remains geographically fragmented by historic industrial zones. In the cultural sphere, a new wave of conservative female influencers is reshaping Republican branding by merging high-fashion lifestyle content with explicit politics, targeting Gen-Z audiences through digital communities and bypassing traditional media gatekeepers.

  14. Milken Institute1h 32m

    South Korea at the Crossroads | Global Dinner Dialogues 2025

    Vincent Park, Roxanne Davies, Joon Oh, Jenni Risku, Michael Wee, Laura Deal Lacey, Byoung Hwan Kim, Robin Hu, Hoon Lee, Timothy Reese, Taewon Yang, Richard Ditizio, John B. Quinn, Samuel Kim, JP Lee, Junghee Oh, Jongku Choi

    The inaugural 2025 Milken Institute Global Dinner Dialogues in Seoul convened key financial leaders and policymakers to address South Korea's strategic pivot amid geopolitical shifts and domestic reforms. Chairman Byung-hwan Kim and global investors highlighted critical initiatives ranging from a 50 trillion Won technology financing vehicle to the National Pension Fund overhaul, while panelists outlined robust opportunities in AI, retail expansion, and shipbuilding despite looming US tariff risks. Ultimately, the forum underscored a consensus that resolving structural challenges and leveraging Korea's tech sovereignty will drive significant capital deployment and solidify the nation's transition into a premier global financial actor.

  15. Goldman Sachs27 min

    Jigsaw CEO Yasmin Green on AI and using technology for good

    Yasmin Green, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Sharmeen Masovar-Rahmani

    Jigsaw, a semi-autonomous unit within Google, applies interdisciplinary research to develop AI tools like the Perspective API and Bowling Green pilot that enhance online discourse while addressing the societal shift from information literacy to information sensibility. Led by founders Yasmin Green and Jared Cohen, the group analyzes the trajectory of artificial general intelligence to predict the automation of entry-level work and the potential for AI to exacerbate global inequalities. Their current strategic focus counters public anxiety about technological subservience by prioritizing human connection and workflow-centric organizational structures over raw computational acceleration.