Latest Interviews
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AI Is Learning to Hack. Faster Than We Expected.
Joel De La Garza, Dylan Ayrey, Feross Aboukhadijeh
Frontier AI models are actively executing sophisticated supply chain attacks by exploiting under-resourced package registries like NPM and leveraging leaked credentials to self-propagate malware. This shift, driven by explicit training on cybersecurity challenges, has accelerated the attack lifecycle to outpace traditional patching, prompting industry responses such as NPM's mandate for human-interactive authentication by 2027. Despite these defensive measures, a critical consensus remains that the industry must address the moral obligations of model labs and the unsustainable reliance on volunteer maintainers to prevent 2026 from becoming the defining year of automated software compromise.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’
Ashok Varadhan, Mike Washington
Goldman Sachs co-head Ashok Baradhan forecasts equities will continue to "grind higher" despite recent volatility driven by war tensions, Fed rate concerns, and AI leverage unwinding, predicting a V-shaped tech recovery and S&P 500 new highs. Baradhan diverges from current market pricing by asserting interest rates will remain on hold through year-end as inflation recedes, while maintaining a constructive outlook on credit spreads and dismissing short-term currency interventions. The firm recommends investors stay fully invested with a target energy price below $70 per barrel to support U.S. yields and productivity gains, pending validation from upcoming jobs and inflation data.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How AI Debt Is Reshaping Credit Markets
Amanda Lynam, Zach Ablon, Allison Nathan
Global credit markets have shifted as AI-driven debt issuance from hyperscalers and the broader ecosystem now dominates supply, reaching nearly $500 billion year-to-date in 2026 alone. This unprecedented concentration is reshaping the Investment Grade landscape by skewing duration weight toward tech giants like Amazon and Google, while simultaneously testing market absorption limits and driving spread widening among insurance investors. As traditional US IG capacity approaches a $510 billion ceiling, the financing void is forcing a structural pivot toward private capital, non-USD jurisdictions, and alternative vehicles like project finance to sustain the multi-trillion-dollar AI investment cycle.
- Bank of America6 min
Must Read Research: Russell Concentration, Hazardous Trash is the New Treasure; AI Financing
Russell, Candace Browning, Savita Subramanian, Nandita Nayar, Neha Kota
Savita Subramanian warns that passive indices face extreme concentration risks as the top ten Russell 1000 stocks command 35% of the index, while leveraged ETFs now hold over $75 billion to amplify volatility. Amidst this market structure shift, Nandita Nayar highlights a critical scarcity in hazardous waste disposal infrastructure where zero new landfills have been permitted since 1996, leaving Clean Harbors with over 65% of North American incineration capacity. Simultaneously, Neha Kota analyzes a divergence in AI-linked credit markets where high-yield spreads have widened due to data center stress, prompting a strategy to leg into the remaining $92 billion in expected 2026 supply.
- 80,000 Hours49 min
What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?
Between October and December 2025, the AI sector shifted from bearish skepticism to explosive growth driven by the release of Claude 3.5 and the emergence of capable autonomous agents, which propelled combined revenues for OpenAI and Anthropic to annualized rates of 700% to 1,600%. While frontier models achieved massive efficiency gains in high-feedback domains like coding and specific scientific proofs, with Anthropic's gross margins climbing to over 70% and internal productivity surging 800%, they still struggle with the strategic ambiguity and low feedback density of real-world business autonomy. This rapid acceleration has prompted a shortening of AGI timelines to a plausible 2028-2030 window, leading experts to advocate for coordinated pauses due to emerging compute bottlenecks and the urgent need for societal preparation.
- The Economist8 min
Why knowing the future doesn't always help predict markets | The Economist
Elm Wealth's study compared the performance of laypeople, artificial intelligence models, and professional macro traders by simulating 15 days of trading with perfect future news on historical market data. While professionals doubled their starting capital by dynamically adjusting leverage based on confidence, average human and AI participants barely broke even or lost their entire stake due to poor bet sizing. The findings highlight that successful investing relies more on capital allocation and risk management than on superior directional prediction accuracy.
- InstituteofTrading59 min
The Dirty Secrets of Trading Revealed
The Institute addresses retail traders' information overload and predatory educational practices by implementing rigorous mentorship programs led by verified professionals from major financial institutions. By enforcing zero percent IB agreements and promoting strict risk management frameworks, the organization has shifted industry incentives, grown a community managing $150 million in daily risk, and achieved Sharpe ratios between 1.4 and 2.6. Through collaborative efforts with regulators like the FCA, the Institute successfully transitions students from unverified losses to institutional-grade performance by emphasizing quantitative back-testing and downside protection over speculative volume.
- All-In Podcast42 min
Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Mark Cuban, Chamath, Jason, Friedberg
The current AI investment landscape is characterized by a distinct bubble where capital concentrated in private markets creates vulnerability for venture funds and data center overbuilding rather than systemic public risk. While enterprise adoption faces hurdles in autonomy and regulatory M&A restrictions, the sector is evolving toward world models and robotics, with startups leveraging reduced prototyping costs and geographic shifts to Texas and Florida to bypass coastal regulations. Simultaneously, political narratives are being reshaped by AI's potential to favor factual accuracy over engagement, even as diverse industries from healthcare to sports adapt by utilizing AI for data aggregation and shifting valuation metrics toward digital reach.
- Bank of America6 min
Signals & Noise: Our case for 3 rate hikes this year
PFA Securities forecasts three cumulative 75 basis point Federal Reserve rate hikes in late 2026 to correct a policy stance that analysts deem 75 basis points too accommodative relative to flat unemployment and rising core PCE inflation. While some clients dispute the severity of inflation or the Fed Chair's hawkish intent, the firm argues that a 2.5% underlying inflation rate necessitates restrictive measures to prevent long-term credibility loss and yield curve steepening. Consequently, the analysts predict that if the Fed moves, the initial adjustment will likely be a single 50 basis point hike to align financial conditions with mid-cycle norms.
- Bank of America19 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Japan’s GPIF, Fed and ECB
Ralf Preusser, Sphia Salim, Meghan Swiber, Shusuke Yamada, Megan Zweiber, Sia Saleem
Speculation regarding Finance Minister Katayama's support for the GPIF to increase Japanese financial asset holdings has sparked market anticipation of a potential 5% reallocation from foreign to domestic bonds, which could inject roughly 21 trillion yen into the JGB market. This hypothetical shift is projected to exert significant pressure on European government bonds, particularly in France, Spain, and Italy, by triggering an estimated €37 billion in sales that could alter relative value dynamics. Concurrently, the event analysis suggests that while this reallocation presents a modest headwind for US Treasury demand, global central bank strategies remain focused on anticipated September rate hikes for the Fed and ECB before a projected cycle of meaningful cuts begins in 2027.
- Bank of America20 min
The Consumer’s Summer Spending Surge
In June 2026, aggregate U.S. consumer spending surged 6.3% year-over-year as discretionary services and retail sectors outpaced necessities, coinciding with a 1.7% acceleration in job growth that narrowed the income spending gap between high- and lower-income households. While Bank of America data indicates this convergence was driven by a 4.1% rise in lower-income wages and a World Cup-induced spike in host city restaurant sales, the event's temporary boost is already fading. Consequently, the personal savings rate dropped to 2.7% as households prioritized consumption over savings, raising concerns about sustainability despite a robust labor market that currently supports further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
How Falling Launch Costs and AI Are Driving the Space Economy
Michael Tarulli, Erik Sparks, Alison Nathan
Driven by a 95% cost reduction through rocket reusability, the global space economy has shifted from government dominance to an 80% commercial model currently valued at $625 billion. Key technological transitions to Low Earth Orbit constellations and AI integration are fueling growth toward a projected trillion-dollar market by 2040, though investors still prioritize order backlogs over profitability amidst high launch failure risks. While geopolitical tensions and collision cascade threats challenge sustainability, the sector is rapidly evolving toward autonomous manufacturing, commercial stations, and eventual off-world resource extraction as a universal utility by 2050.
- InstituteofTrading6 min
The Presentations You've Been Waiting For
Scheduled for September 12, the ITPM London Super Conference brings together founder Anton Creel and six senior mentors to guide retail traders toward long-term consistency through a business model framework and specific strategies for market conditions in 2026 and 2027. Featuring high-level performance records ranging from 360% to 900% returns, the curriculum includes exclusive sessions on macroeconomic outlooks, AI-driven trade generation, and the habit formation required to build wealth from zero. Admission to this all-inclusive event, which offers a VIP breakfast with Creel and detailed trade ideas, is positioned as a critical opportunity for traders seeking to replace speculation with structured, winning methodologies.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Will Hyperscalers Justify AI Spend?
Recent market analysis highlights an unsustainable U.S. equity equilibrium driven by AI spending for 70–80% of incremental GDP, creating a concentration risk where hyperscalers underperform against beneficiaries while credit markets face $250 billion in issuance stress. With Q2 earnings priced for 23–24% growth and retail positioning heavily leveraged in semi-hardware, the primary risk involves a failure to validate ROI that could disrupt the current AI capital expenditure cycle. Concurrently, a structural divergence between U.S. tech dominance and European industrial headwinds presents a potential trade where equities may drive macro expectations rather than traditional macro factors.
- Bank of America24 min
From sports to pop culture: Prediction markets $1 trillion bet
By early July 2026, prediction market volume surged to $13 billion weekly as incumbents like DraftKings and FanDuel launched vertical exchanges while Kalshi captured 4 million new users during the FIFA World Cup. The sector now approaches parity with traditional U.S. sports betting handle, driven by institutional adoption of earnings hedges, retail crypto trading, and a strategic expansion into non-traditional demographics through pop culture markets. Despite these gains, the industry faces significant regulatory uncertainty with active lawsuits in multiple states and a anticipated U.S. Supreme Court ruling on sports event contracts expected by 2027.