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  1. Goldman Sachs20 min

    Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?

    Sanam Vakil, Dennis Ross, Kevin Donegan, Alison Nathan

    Entering its fourth week, the Iran conflict has evolved into a regime-survival struggle where Tehran seeks to spread costs widely while the U.S. military targets Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Strategic deadlock persists over the Strait of Hormuz, as limited convoy operations can only restore roughly 20% of normal oil flows despite rehearsed allied defenses. Panelists conclude that resolving this locked-in scenario requires a mediated outcome, though recent political assassinations and the need to rebuild Iran's collapsed economy complicate any immediate return to pre-conflict stability.

  2. Goldman Sachs22 min

    Can the US consumer stay strong?

    David Mericle, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Alison Nathan

    Goldman Sachs Chief Economist David Miracle projects moderate U.S. consumption growth in 2024, attributing current resilience to strong household balance sheets while warning that unemployment risks could trigger a shift to job loss. Retail analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog observe a bifurcated consumer environment where spending prioritizes services and essentials while lower-income demographics defer discretionary purchases and trade down to private labels. Despite these pressures, the market faces further headwinds from a five-day shorter holiday shopping window, persistent price levels, and election uncertainty, leading management to adopt cautious strategies focused on revenue growth and value optimization.