Latest Interviews
Showing 1–4 of 4 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs23 min
Why the Fed’s Hawkish Turn Could Support the AI Boom
Tony Pasquariello, Josh Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson
New Federal Reserve Chair Warsh signaled a data-dependent approach focused on price stability while the committee's uncertain dot plot and absence of forward guidance prompted a hawkish market reaction. Panelists interpret current conditions as a mid-cycle adjustment driven by falling oil prices from geopolitical shifts and resilient AI-driven equity momentum rather than impending recession. This unique environment, characterized by rapid narrative shifts and robust capital absorption, suggests a high-velocity economic landscape distinct from the stagnation of previous years.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.