Dom Wilson

Are Investors Complacent?

Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson

The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.