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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will tariffs lead to a recession?
Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, Oren Cass, Allison Nathan
Prominent economists Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, and Oren Cass debated the Trump administration's historic tariff expansion, which Krugman identifies as an unprecedented economic shock and Hatzius projects will reduce GDP growth by two percentage points while raising recession probabilities to 45%. While Krugman warns that policy uncertainty will stifle business investment and Hatzius cautions that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult trade-off between inflation and stagnation, Cass argues the measures represent a necessary structural correction to global supply chains that will eventually stimulate domestic production. The panel concluded that although immediate data lags obscure the full extent of damage, the severity of the downturn will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve's ability to balance conflicting price and employment mandates against a backdrop of rapidly shifting trade policy.
- Goldman Sachs53 min
The CARES Act and its Impact on the US Economic Outlook
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, William G. Gale, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Bill Gale
On March 31, 2020, Goldman Sachs hosted a client call featuring Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and external fiscal experts to analyze the CARES Act and downgrade the 2020 U.S. economic outlook to a record contraction. The discussion detailed the legislation's targeted relief components, including expanded unemployment benefits, direct stimulus checks, and $46 billion in aid for the airline industry, alongside projections that Q2 GDP will fall approximately 10% with net debt-to-GDP rising above 100%. Despite these severe short-term headwinds, experts concluded that low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential $4.5 trillion lending capacity would likely prevent a sovereign debt crisis.