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Oren Cass

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  1. a16z1h 13m

    Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs

    Oren Cass, Noah Smith, Erik Torenberg

    American Compass, founded in 2020 to prioritize family and industry over market efficiency, argues that standard trade models fail to account for state-driven advantages in non-market economies like China. The organization predicts that while tariffs will cause immediate supply chain disruptions, they will ultimately catalyze a manufacturing renaissance over a three-to-five-year horizon if coupled with consistent industrial policy and market pooling among allies. Key figures contend that short-term economic pain is a necessary trade-off to reshape global trade dynamics, provided the administration sustains long-term credibility in its protectionist strategies.

  2. Goldman Sachs26 min

    Will tariffs lead to a recession?

    Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, Oren Cass, Allison Nathan

    Prominent economists Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, and Oren Cass debated the Trump administration's historic tariff expansion, which Krugman identifies as an unprecedented economic shock and Hatzius projects will reduce GDP growth by two percentage points while raising recession probabilities to 45%. While Krugman warns that policy uncertainty will stifle business investment and Hatzius cautions that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult trade-off between inflation and stagnation, Cass argues the measures represent a necessary structural correction to global supply chains that will eventually stimulate domestic production. The panel concluded that although immediate data lags obscure the full extent of damage, the severity of the downturn will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve's ability to balance conflicting price and employment mandates against a backdrop of rapidly shifting trade policy.