Latest Interviews
Showing 1–4 of 4 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Inflation: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Allison Nathan, Mohamed El-Erian, Jan Hatzius
Prominent economists Mohamed El-Erian and Jan Hatzius debate whether the current U.S. inflation surge is a transient phenomenon driven by commodity spikes or a persistent structural deficit caused by labor force changes and supply chain rewiring. While Hatzius anticipates inflation will normalize to a 2% to 2.5% range following a mid-June taper, El-Erian warns that the Federal Reserve risks a Type 2 error by underreacting to secular trends, potentially forcing a sharper policy correction later. The dialogue further highlights diverging views on labor market tightness and market valuations, with El-Erian cautioning that distorted liquidity has created a "rational bubble" that could collapse if inflation expectations de-anchor.