Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 52 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs8 min
Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’
Ashok Varadhan, Mike Washington
Goldman Sachs co-head Ashok Baradhan forecasts equities will continue to "grind higher" despite recent volatility driven by war tensions, Fed rate concerns, and AI leverage unwinding, predicting a V-shaped tech recovery and S&P 500 new highs. Baradhan diverges from current market pricing by asserting interest rates will remain on hold through year-end as inflation recedes, while maintaining a constructive outlook on credit spreads and dismissing short-term currency interventions. The firm recommends investors stay fully invested with a target energy price below $70 per barrel to support U.S. yields and productivity gains, pending validation from upcoming jobs and inflation data.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How AI Debt Is Reshaping Credit Markets
Amanda Lynam, Zach Ablon, Allison Nathan
Global credit markets have shifted as AI-driven debt issuance from hyperscalers and the broader ecosystem now dominates supply, reaching nearly $500 billion year-to-date in 2026 alone. This unprecedented concentration is reshaping the Investment Grade landscape by skewing duration weight toward tech giants like Amazon and Google, while simultaneously testing market absorption limits and driving spread widening among insurance investors. As traditional US IG capacity approaches a $510 billion ceiling, the financing void is forcing a structural pivot toward private capital, non-USD jurisdictions, and alternative vehicles like project finance to sustain the multi-trillion-dollar AI investment cycle.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
How Falling Launch Costs and AI Are Driving the Space Economy
Michael Tarulli, Erik Sparks, Alison Nathan
Driven by a 95% cost reduction through rocket reusability, the global space economy has shifted from government dominance to an 80% commercial model currently valued at $625 billion. Key technological transitions to Low Earth Orbit constellations and AI integration are fueling growth toward a projected trillion-dollar market by 2040, though investors still prioritize order backlogs over profitability amidst high launch failure risks. While geopolitical tensions and collision cascade threats challenge sustainability, the sector is rapidly evolving toward autonomous manufacturing, commercial stations, and eventual off-world resource extraction as a universal utility by 2050.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Will Hyperscalers Justify AI Spend?
Recent market analysis highlights an unsustainable U.S. equity equilibrium driven by AI spending for 70–80% of incremental GDP, creating a concentration risk where hyperscalers underperform against beneficiaries while credit markets face $250 billion in issuance stress. With Q2 earnings priced for 23–24% growth and retail positioning heavily leveraged in semi-hardware, the primary risk involves a failure to validate ROI that could disrupt the current AI capital expenditure cycle. Concurrently, a structural divergence between U.S. tech dominance and European industrial headwinds presents a potential trade where equities may drive macro expectations rather than traditional macro factors.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Will European Equities Outperform the S&P?
European equities have surged to near all-time highs driven by a 6–7% average upgrade in earnings estimates within the commodity and financial sectors, supported by resilient economic growth and planned German fiscal spending. Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month Euro Stoxx 600 forecast to 660, citing the region's broader market breadth and the underappreciated potential of heavy asset companies in defense, aerospace, and utilities that are benefiting from global infrastructure and defense spending. While analysts project high single-digit returns for Europe over the coming year, the market is expected to trail U.S. and Asian performance due to lower energy independence and the concentration of tech dominance in American hyperscalers.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The AI Investment Boom: When Will It Pay Off?
Jim Covello, Alison Nathan, George Lee
In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode recorded on May 26, 2026, Jim Cabello and George Lee analyze the divergence between surging AI technology and unproven economic returns. Cabello admits previous misjudgments regarding consumer adoption and hyperscaler spending patterns while warning that the current exclusive profitability of semiconductor firms creates an unsustainable market dynamic. The dialogue concludes that without evidence of enterprise-scale profitability within the next two years, the industry faces a potential correction where hyperscaler stocks are poised to outperform if capital expenditure moderates or profit distribution shifts upstream.
- Goldman Sachs11 min
A Tale of Two Markets
Shawn Tuteja, Chris Hussey, Sean Tatasia
As of May 13, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have rallied significantly driven by a 17% year-over-year earnings growth surge and concentrated capital expenditure of $755 billion in the AI sector. This performance has created a divergence where hyperscalers and semiconductor equipment outpace cyclical equities amid inflation shocks that have shifted Federal Reserve expectations from rate cuts to potential hikes. While Goldman Sachs rules out a bubble due to earnings-backed fundamentals, the market faces heightened volatility risks from systemic leverage and potential macro triggers like 30-year Treasury yields breaching 5%.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Cracks in Private Credit
Howard Marks, Michael Arougheti, Amanda Lynam, Allison Nathan, Michael Arrighetti
After expanding to nearly $2 trillion in assets, the private credit market faces liquidity scrutiny driven by redemption requests against non-traded BDCs, though institutional capital remains insulated by lock-up structures. While exposure to software and AI sectors has raised concerns about potential defaults, experts like Howard Marks argue that senior lenders' first-lien positions and diversified portfolios remain resilient against systemic failure. Looking ahead, industry leaders predict a necessary credit cycle correction that will reallocate capital toward direct lending and opportunistic credit strategies, ultimately fostering a more circumspect investment environment.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will AI Make Markets Less Efficient?
Osman Ali, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs' Global Co-Head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, Osman Ali, discusses how his team leverages AI and machine learning to analyze market sentiment across 15,000 stocks daily, capturing the fact that over half of recent equity returns are now driven by themes rather than fundamentals. Ali explains that while advanced language models enhance market efficiency, their widespread adoption creates new alpha opportunities through crowding effects and predictable herd behavior, which the firm actively models to exploit. This strategy relies on a hybrid approach combining proprietary data, custom technology, and human experience to navigate a zero-sum game where increasing market complexity continuously generates fresh sources of value.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Riding the AI Wave
The April 30 FOMC meeting revealed a divided Federal Reserve committee that shifted from expectations of a near-term rate cut to a non-committal stance, a position reinforced by the incoming appointment of hawkish member Kevin Warsh. While private sector leverage has decreased since the Great Financial Crisis, concerns regarding public sector debt sustainability and elevated term premiums persist alongside a robust equity rally driven by hyperscalers and artificial intelligence. Investment strategists consequently maintain a bullish but cautious 7/10 allocation to technology, avoiding fixed income while rotating into energy and defense to hedge against potential consumer drawdowns expected in the mid-year "air pocket."
- Goldman Sachs17 min
How Warsh Could Shape Fed Policy
Kevin Warsh, Rob Kaplan, Alison Nathan
Following the Justice Department's decision to drop its investigation of Jerome Powell, the Trump administration expects Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as the next Fed Chair by June. Warsh, a former "lieutenant" to Ben Bernanke who views quantitative easing strictly as an emergency tool, plans to collaborate with Treasury Secretary Bessent to manage the balance sheet while prioritizing a reduction in the Federal Reserve's communication burden through the potential elimination of the dot plot. This strategy aims to navigate sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainties that have pushed market rate cut expectations into 2027, requiring Warsh to build consensus among diverse FOMC members to secure seven votes for any policy shift.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Apollo's Jim Zelter on the Future of Private Credit
Apollo Global Management, led by Jim Zelter, is strategically expanding its $970 billion asset base to finance a projected $5 trillion to $6 trillion capital expenditure surge driven by AI infrastructure and industrial reshoring. By leveraging its integrated insurance subsidiary Athene and $150 billion in recent investment-grade capital, the firm aims to dominate the $40 trillion private credit market with a focus on large-scale projects like the Intel semiconductor venture and Japanese corporate carve-outs. This approach seeks to capitalize on the shift from non-investment grade lending to massive investment-grade financing needs while maintaining disciplined risk management that prioritizes fundamental value over market noise.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
New Worries
Josh Schiffrin, Chris Hussey, Josh Shiprin
Goldman Sachs Chief Strategy Officer Josh Shiprin highlighted that geopolitical instability and surging oil prices have overshadowed recent payrolls data, creating a complex stagflationary environment that complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook. While maintaining confidence in an impending rate cut, Shiprin warned that the duration of the conflict could alter the timing of reductions and urged investors to adopt a long-term strategy focused on a steepening U.S. 2s10s yield curve amidst heightened market uncertainty.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
The New AI Trades
In early 2026, software stocks suffered a 25% valuation collapse as forward earnings multiples compressed, while investors grappled with AI-driven disruption risks across sectors like legal and media. Simultaneously, five U.S. hyperscalers are projected to spend $660 billion on capital expenditures this year, a surge consuming 90% of their operating cash flows that has forced reduced buybacks and increased debt reliance. Amidst these headwinds, Goldman Sachs forecasts an S&P 500 recovery driven primarily by 12% fourth-quarter earnings growth and a market rotation toward cyclical sectors rather than AI-centric leaders.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.