David Hauner
Showing 1–3 of 3 transcripts.
- Bank of America6 min
Signals & Noise: Four Themes Driving Emerging Markets
David Hauner of BofA Securities outlines a constructive outlook for emerging market carry trades in September 2026, driven by high global rates and a range-bound dollar despite risks from rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. The strategy favors high-yield assets in Brazil, Turkey, and frontier markets while avoiding sovereign credit spreads, viewing Treasury buybacks and a potential three-rate hike cycle as catalysts for dollar weakness that support EM currencies. Key catalysts include the US midterms delaying a September rate decision, a constructive Trump-Xi summit aiding the offshore Renminbi, and Brazil's upcoming elections, though persistent inflation remains a primary constraint on fixed income returns.
- Bank of America30 min
Positive structural case for EM won’t collapse under a few Fed hikes
David Hauner, David Beker, TJ Thornton
BFA Global Research maintains a structurally bullish stance on emerging markets despite tactical caution driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes and geopolitical tensions in Iran. The firm forecasts that while US economic exceptionalism and strong dollar dynamics pose near-term risks, a strategic buying opportunity is expected in 2027 as global inflation declines and the dollar weakens. Specific market analyses highlight significant volatility in Brazil ahead of its October election and an asymmetric investment thesis for China, where undervalued currencies and strong exports contrast with weak domestic demand.
- Bank of America20 min
No longer overbought, still advantaged; Emerging Markets
David Hauner, David Beker, TJ Thornton
Analysts maintain a structurally bullish outlook on emerging market equities and fixed income in early 2026, anchored by a secular US dollar downtrend and attractive valuations despite geopolitical risks in Iran. Brazil and Argentina are highlighted as primary investment targets due to their commodity export advantages and reform potential, while China and Mexico are viewed through the lens of currency resilience and US economic correlation respectively. Upcoming elections in Brazil and the duration of the Iran conflict remain critical variables that could alter the trajectory of capital flows and inflation dynamics through late 2026.