David Kostin
Showing 1–7 of 7 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
From Assets to Alpha: David Kostin on US Equities
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Koston forecasts a 20%+ return for U.S. stocks in 2026 based on economic stability and earnings growth, while distinguishing between the fundamentally grounded public AI market and a potentially bubble-ridden private sector driven by reflexive capital inflows. Despite projecting long-term annualized returns of 6.5% over the next decade, Koston identifies immediate opportunities in undervalued healthcare, stable middle-income consumer sectors, and AI-driven revenue generators as institutional funds struggle to outperform benchmarks. As Koston transitions from the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist role to an Advisory Director position in 2026, his successor Ben Snyder will inherit a market characterized by high concentration risk and shifting investor behavior from asset accumulation to alpha generation.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Equity risks and alts opportunities
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Allison Nathan
The Professional Investor Forum gathered advisors managing $1.3 trillion to analyze a U.S. market recovering to pre-tariff levels despite a 50% recession probability, as first-quarter earnings beat expectations by 12% before new April policy shifts. Goldman Sachs forecasts a recession-free 2025 baseline, though participants anticipate earnings compression in the second quarter if tariffs are implemented. Consequently, investment strategies are pivoting toward private market allocations and equal-weighted indices to mitigate concentrated stock risk while managing capital flows repatriated from Europe and steady inflows from Asia.
- Goldman Sachs8 min
Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin on the market impact of recent policy updates
David Kostin, Carl, John Yang, Sarah
Goldman Sachs strategist David Koston revised 2024 U.S. equity EPS growth forecasts downward to 9% due to a weakening economic outlook, while maintaining a 6,500 target for the S&P 500. Portfolio rotations are shifting toward defensive healthcare and consumer staples as investors grow indifferent to trade policy uncertainty, with a specific focus on low-volatility earnings and companies leveraging AI for revenue generation. Although tariff scenarios could compress margins, the firm continues to view GDP growth and the Magnificent Seven's high reinvestment rates as the primary drivers for sustained market performance pending durable economic data.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Should investors worry about market concentration?
David Kostin, Owen Lamont, Alison Nathan
Strategists David Kostin and Owen Lamont converge on the projection that U.S. equity markets face a decade of sub-10% returns driven by extreme concentration and elevated valuations, though they diverge on whether the top ten stocks' dominance itself constitutes the primary risk. Kostin warns that the current 36% market cap concentration creates a negative equity risk premium and recommends shifting to equal-weighted indices, while Lamont argues that future volatility will stem from AI-driven creative destruction and mean reversion rather than portfolio structure. Both analysts acknowledge that the sustainability of the "magnificent seven's" growth and potential AI bubbles remain critical variables that could accelerate a decline in market performance over the next ten years.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
More gains ahead for US stocks?
David Kostin, Ryan Hammond, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Research has raised its 2024 S&P 500 year-end target to approximately 6,000, citing an 11% earnings growth forecast for 2025 driven by solid macroeconomic data and semiconductor strength. While mega-cap technology stocks currently dominate the rally and trade at historic valuation highs, the firm identifies mid-cap equities as a key opportunity due to their 15x forward earnings multiple and superior performance track record during Federal Reserve rate cuts. Future market returns are expected to rely on fundamental earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion, though the outlook remains contingent on navigating immediate geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures that could limit further rate reductions.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
Taking stock: Can the US rally continue?
Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin raised the firm's year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600, citing resilient earnings expectations despite the index's heavy reliance on just five AI-driven stocks that accounted for 60% of year-to-date gains. While forward valuations remain near historic highs at 21 times earnings, Kostin projects a slight multiple compression to 20.5 times as market participants pivot from AI euphoria to scrutiny over the timing of revenue realization in upcoming earnings reports. The outlook further incorporates potential election-related volatility and tariff uncertainties, with the primary downside risk identified as a rapid valuation correction if AI investment returns fail to materialize alongside robust corporate share repurchase demand.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Hedges, privates and tax alpha: How investors are navigating record-high markets
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Adam Siegler
The 2024 market outlook highlights robust U.S. equity gains and a decelerated recession risk of 15%, driven by resilient corporate earnings and consumer spending despite elevated valuations. Investors are increasingly utilizing $100 billion structured notes to hedge downside while private credit and extended private market participation offer yield and alpha alternatives as Federal Reserve rate cuts approach. Independent RIA firms are prioritizing technology partnerships and tax-efficient strategies to scale operations and replicate institutional infrastructure while expanding into new asset classes.