Padi Raphael
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Equity risks and alts opportunities
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Allison Nathan
The Professional Investor Forum gathered advisors managing $1.3 trillion to analyze a U.S. market recovering to pre-tariff levels despite a 50% recession probability, as first-quarter earnings beat expectations by 12% before new April policy shifts. Goldman Sachs forecasts a recession-free 2025 baseline, though participants anticipate earnings compression in the second quarter if tariffs are implemented. Consequently, investment strategies are pivoting toward private market allocations and equal-weighted indices to mitigate concentrated stock risk while managing capital flows repatriated from Europe and steady inflows from Asia.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
Hedges, privates and tax alpha: How investors are navigating record-high markets
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Adam Siegler
The 2024 market outlook highlights robust U.S. equity gains and a decelerated recession risk of 15%, driven by resilient corporate earnings and consumer spending despite elevated valuations. Investors are increasingly utilizing $100 billion structured notes to hedge downside while private credit and extended private market participation offer yield and alpha alternatives as Federal Reserve rate cuts approach. Independent RIA firms are prioritizing technology partnerships and tax-efficient strategies to scale operations and replicate institutional infrastructure while expanding into new asset classes.