Jan Hatzius
Showing 16–22 of 22 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Reflation Risk
Allison Nathan, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius debated whether U.S. fiscal stimulus will trigger a 1970s-style inflationary spiral, with Hatzius arguing that a 6% output gap and temporary spending measures justify the Federal Reserve's tolerance for average inflation targeting. While bond market strategist Dominic Wilson noted that recent yield increases reflect growth acceleration rather than policy surprises, the consensus suggests a rotation into cyclical assets as investors anticipate Fed rate hikes beginning in early 2022. Goldman Sachs projects tapering in early 2022 with a first rate hike in 2024, advising investors to favor cyclical equities and non-gold commodities over rate-sensitive growth stocks during this transition.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Markets Update: 2021 Global Growth Outlook
Jan Hatzius, Jake Seward, Joe Wall
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzias projects a 6.4% U.S. GDP growth for 2021, driven by a projected $750 billion stimulus package and a spring recovery accelerated by vaccinations. Global forecasts anticipate a robust 5-6% rebound in Europe and slightly below 8% growth in China, while central banks maintain a dovish stance with no interest rate hikes expected until 2024 or 2025. The analysis concludes that the crisis highlighted the efficacy of aggressive fiscal intervention and the adaptability of market economies despite persistent structural shifts in employment and productivity.
- Goldman Sachs7 min
Face Masks and GDP
Goldman Sachs Research proposes a national face mask mandate as an economic alternative to lockdowns, projecting that increasing U.S. compliance from 70% to 85% could lower daily infection growth rates from 1.6% to 0.6%. The report argues this strategy would avoid the estimated 5% GDP reduction associated with equivalent restrictions on economic activity, citing data from East Asia and Southern Europe where mandates successfully slowed viral spread. While the analysis acknowledges potential measurement errors, it concludes that federal or decentralized mandates offer a statistically viable path to mitigate the Sunbelt's accelerating crisis.
- Goldman Sachs9 min
Thinking About an Economic Restart
Following aggressive US monetary and fiscal interventions, investor sentiment has shifted positive despite plunging global growth estimates, driven by expanded Federal Reserve asset purchases and the CARES Act. A strategic debate continues between rapid economic reopening and cautious public health measures, with experts noting historical evidence that prioritizing safety yields better long-term economic outcomes. Recovery trajectories will now depend on monitoring immediate jobless claims and viral progression, while highlighting significant disparities in stimulus adequacy between the US and Europe where sovereign risks persist.
- Goldman Sachs53 min
The CARES Act and its Impact on the US Economic Outlook
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, William G. Gale, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Bill Gale
On March 31, 2020, Goldman Sachs hosted a client call featuring Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and external fiscal experts to analyze the CARES Act and downgrade the 2020 U.S. economic outlook to a record contraction. The discussion detailed the legislation's targeted relief components, including expanded unemployment benefits, direct stimulus checks, and $46 billion in aid for the airline industry, alongside projections that Q2 GDP will fall approximately 10% with net debt-to-GDP rising above 100%. Despite these severe short-term headwinds, experts concluded that low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential $4.5 trillion lending capacity would likely prevent a sovereign debt crisis.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
"Catch-Up With David": with Chief Economist Jan Hatzius
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius projects a global economic slowdown to approximately 3.5% through 2020 driven by US full employment and Federal Reserve rate hikes, though he maintains that recession risk remains low under this gentle deceleration trajectory. Drawing on 2018 forecasting errors regarding emerging markets and the historical lesson of the Berlin Wall's sudden fall, Hatzius advocates for a professional philosophy that balances rigorous modeling with the artistic judgment required to challenge conventional consensus. He concludes that effective forecasting fundamentally depends on acknowledging the inherent limits of predictive knowledge, a principle he applies by abstaining from speculating on unpredictable events ranging from geopolitical shifts to major sporting outcomes.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.