Ken Rogoff

Is a US fiscal crisis ahead?

Kenneth Rogoff, Niall Ferguson, Allison Nathan, Ken Rogoff, Neil Ferguson

Economists Ken Rogoff and Niall Ferguson argue that the United States faces an unsustainable fiscal trajectory driven by rising global interest rates and a critical threshold where sovereign debt servicing costs have surpassed defense spending. They warn that without political reforms or productivity breakthroughs from artificial intelligence, the nation risks a rapid financial crisis involving inflation or a permanent erosion of the dollar's reserve currency status. This convergence of historical parallels and modern geopolitical fragmentation suggests the U.S. must navigate a difficult choice between austerity, higher inflation, or diminished global influence within the coming years.