Kenneth Rogoff
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- The Economist9 min
Could the world move away from the dollar?
Rachana Shanbhogue, Henry Curr, Gita Gopinath, Kenneth Rogoff, Peter
China's decoupling from the dollar, combined with sanctions on Russia and rising US debt levels, is accelerating a global shift toward diversifying reserve assets away from the United States. While the Euro and Renminbi are gaining traction in specific trade blocs, the transition remains gradual despite warnings of potential financial instability driven by US political polarization and a public default threat from the Trump administration. Global markets have thus far absorbed trade tensions without major financial contagion, though a tipping point could trigger a rapid restructuring of the international currency system if US institutional credibility continues to erode.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Is a US fiscal crisis ahead?
Kenneth Rogoff, Niall Ferguson, Allison Nathan, Ken Rogoff, Neil Ferguson
Economists Ken Rogoff and Niall Ferguson argue that the United States faces an unsustainable fiscal trajectory driven by rising global interest rates and a critical threshold where sovereign debt servicing costs have surpassed defense spending. They warn that without political reforms or productivity breakthroughs from artificial intelligence, the nation risks a rapid financial crisis involving inflation or a permanent erosion of the dollar's reserve currency status. This convergence of historical parallels and modern geopolitical fragmentation suggests the U.S. must navigate a difficult choice between austerity, higher inflation, or diminished global influence within the coming years.