Mollyann Brodie
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- Milken Institute1h 0m
The Art and Science of Polling
Mollyann Brodie, Jon Cohen, Michael Dimock, Alex Lundry, Margie Omero, Molly Ambroti
A panel of polling experts and campaign strategists analyzed how modern data science and media dynamics reshaped the 2016 election, noting that traditional models failed to predict Donald Trump's rise until online metrics and social media sentiment captured his "black swan" status. While Republican voters were driven by divisive rhetoric and fear, the discussion highlighted a methodological revolution where machine learning and aggregated diverse data sources replaced outdated telephone surveys to identify unarticulated voter preferences. The event concluded by emphasizing that despite industry challenges with response rates and public trust, polling remains an essential democratic check against punditry by validating the broader electorate's mandate.