Neil Thompson

How Will AI Impact the Labor Market?

Daron Acemoglu, Neil Thompson, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan

Experts from Goldman Sachs and MIT project that while AI will displace tens of millions of U.S. workers over the next decade through significant labor reallocation, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by less than one percentage point annually as new job creation offsets automation. The consensus indicates a gradual transition driven by integration barriers rather than sudden mass layoffs, though disagreement persists regarding short-term net employment impacts depending on whether firms prioritize replacing or complementing human labor. Recorded in June 2026, these forecasts highlight that the trajectory of inequality and total job levels will ultimately depend on whether AI development focuses on automating routine cognitive tasks or augmenting high-value human expertise.