Joseph Briggs
Showing 1–4 of 4 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
How Will AI Impact the Labor Market?
Daron Acemoglu, Neil Thompson, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Experts from Goldman Sachs and MIT project that while AI will displace tens of millions of U.S. workers over the next decade through significant labor reallocation, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by less than one percentage point annually as new job creation offsets automation. The consensus indicates a gradual transition driven by integration barriers rather than sudden mass layoffs, though disagreement persists regarding short-term net employment impacts depending on whether firms prioritize replacing or complementing human labor. Recorded in June 2026, these forecasts highlight that the trajectory of inequality and total job levels will ultimately depend on whether AI development focuses on automating routine cognitive tasks or augmenting high-value human expertise.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How Reliable is Economic Data?
Erica Groshen, Arthur Laffer, Alberto Cavallo, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Recent concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data stem from funding cuts, a 15–20% staffing reduction at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the dismissal of its Commissioner by President Trump. Goldman Sachs research indicates that these operational constraints and declining survey responsiveness are increasing standard errors in key indicators like the CPI and JOLTS, creating a risk of data divergence. While current safeguards and institutional checks may prevent a total collapse of credibility, analysts warn that prolonged political interference and resource depletion could eventually erode market trust to the extent seen in Argentina.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
AI Exchanges: AI’s Impact on Employment
Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan, George Lee
While current U.S. corporate AI adoption hovers at 9% with higher penetration in large firms, the technology is already reshaping the labor market by increasing specialized engineering job postings by up to 50% while disproportionately displacing recent college graduates and junior roles. Although long-term forecasts suggest minimal structural unemployment due to historical technology-driven growth, rapid adoption within one to three years could trigger a 2% to 2.5% unemployment spike, whereas a gradual ten-year transition would keep impacts manageable. Strategic resilience depends on the sector's reliance on high-stakes decision-making or human interaction, yet the shift forces a fundamental challenge to traditional apprenticeship models and introduces hybrid workforce structures where managers oversee both humans and autonomous agents.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Alec Phillips, Joseph Briggs, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Starting February 1, 2025, the administration implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and delayed measures against Canada and Mexico while accelerating steel and aluminum duties to 25% with no exemptions. This unprecedented two-week escalation compresses trade war dynamics into a single window, projecting a mid-single-digit rise in effective U.S. tariff rates that could slow American growth by 25 basis points and push core inflation to 2.6% by year-end. As global central banks diverge with the Federal Reserve adopting a slightly hawkish stance, investors are increasingly hedging against dollar strength while anticipating a pivotal April 1 report on structural tariff mechanisms.