Peter Galbo

GLP-1s are shrinking some appetites; broader use poses a prickly challenge

Peter Galbo, Jason Gerberry, TJ Thornton

As of May 2026, the U.S. GLP-1 market has reached 10 million treated patients and $28 billion in revenue while facing a deflationary pricing cycle driven by Medicare agreements and an upcoming surge of generic semaglutide competitors. This therapeutic expansion is displacing packaged food volume in snack and alcohol categories, forcing large-cap pharmaceutical firms to trade at depressed multiples as the market nears U.S. saturation and pivots toward international growth. Future value will increasingly depend on next-generation formulations targeting muscle preservation and adherence rates, with analysts forecasting a shift where international sales eventually comprise more than half of total category revenue.