Rafe Jadrusich

K-shaped housing: regional and segment divergence emerges from inventory reset

TJ Thornton, Rafe Jadrusich, Robert Leonard

Rafe Jadrusich analyzes the divergent US housing market, where severe supply constraints in the Northeast drive high demand while oversupply in the Southeast and Texas erodes affordability and slows migration. This bifurcation extends to builders and the repair sector, as luxury and non-discretionary segments outperform entry-level markets and discretionary remodeling, driven by skilled labor shortages and shifting homeowner behaviors. Future sector outperformance depends on three key catalysts: the normalization of housing starts to reduce supply pressure, the stabilization of cost inflation, and robust job growth that sustains demand despite elevated mortgage rates.