Raymond McGuire
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- Milken Institute38 min
Countering Warning Signs | Global Conference 2024
Josh Barro, Mark Lindbloom, Raymond McGuire, Asutosh Padhi, Seema Shah, Jeffrey Solomon, Ray McGuire
Panelists led by Jeffrey Solomon and Ray McGuire conclude that structural shifts such as deglobalization and domestic infrastructure spending will sustain a "higher for longer" rate environment with nominal yields stabilizing between 4.25% and 4.75%. While consumer spending remains bifurcated with resilient high-income earners and distressed lower-income households, the economy continues to absorb higher costs due to robust corporate balance sheets and productivity gains driven by technology. Ultimately, investors must recalibrate valuations to account for persistent inflation and tail risks, recognizing that the labor market serves as the primary indicator before a potential systemic downturn or prolonged expansion occurs.
- Milken Institute1h 12m
U.S. Overview: First Recovery, Then Takeoff?
Abby Joseph Cohen, Gary Loveman, Raymond McGuire, Jim Moffatt, Maggie Wilderotter, Ross DeVol, Ross Duvall, Abby Cohen
A March 2013 panel of Milken Institute analysts evaluated the U.S. economic recovery, noting a 2.5% Q1 growth rate that masks a sluggish labor market and a divergence where corporations hoard cash for buybacks rather than investing in small businesses or R&D. The discussion highlighted how European recession, regulatory uncertainty, and a global tax code incentivizing overseas profits have suppressed domestic expansion despite strong corporate profits and a housing market turning point. Experts concluded that achieving 4% growth requires resolving political gridlock, reforming the corporate tax system, and implementing structural investments in innovation and broadband to convert current financial slack into sustained job creation.