Robert de Neufville
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Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine (2022)
Clay Graubard, Robert de Neufville, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris
On April 27, 2022, super forecasters Robert de Nuffel and Clay Graubart analyzed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, contrasting their divergent pre-war probability estimates while dissecting errors in predicting Russian military dominance and Western intelligence contributions. The discussion further explores the field's resurgence driven by institutional funding and the necessity of combining granular domain expertise with probabilistic discipline to navigate nuclear risks and emerging geopolitical flashpoints. Through this analysis, the guests highlight the critical role of diverse information sources and collaborative forecasting in mitigating unknown variables within an increasingly multipolar global landscape.